Tag Archives: Gold

It’s been a week of quite righteous focus on collateral. The 4-week bill equivalent yield closes it at just 114 bps, with only three days left before the RRP “floor” is moved up by the FOMC to 125 bps.  That’s too much premium in price, though we know why given what FRBNY reported for repo fails last week.  With all that, there’s really nothing much to say about what’s below. OK, there is, but I’ll save that for next...

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price – FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%– Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%– Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen– Yellen does not expect Trump’s tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy– No concern for bitcoin which ‘plays a very small...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair begins to bounce higher after approaching from 0.9892 level, supported by the EMA50 that meets the mentioned level, while stochastic shows clear bullish trend signals on the four hours time frame. Therefore, these factors encourage us to keep our positive expectations in the upcoming period, waiting for visiting 1.0038 level as a next main station, being aware that breaking 0.9892 will stop...

We’ve had a pretty good run of data recently and with the tax bill passing the Senate one would expect to see markets react positively, to reflect renewed optimism about economic growth. We have improving economic data on pretty much a global basis. It isn’t a boom by any stretch of the imagination but there is no doubt that the rate of change has recently been more positive. We also have a change in tax policy that...

Update: Cryptocurrencies are widely bid tonight with Bitcoin over $10,150, Ether holding $475, and LiteCoin topping $100 for the first time… LiteCoin Price in USD, Mar - Nov 2017(see more posts on Litecoin, ) - Click to enlarge Bitcoin has now soared over 20% since Black Friday’s close, topping $10,000 for the first time in history (rising from $9,000 in just 2 days)… now up over 950% year-to-date. image courtesy...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future… Niels Bohr Every time I see that quote I think to myself, “but that...

The basis of this admittedly crazy forecast was simple: capital flows. I think we can all agree that bitcoin (BTC) is “interesting.” One of the primary reason that bitcoin (and cryptocurrency in general) is interesting is that nobody knows what will happen going forward. Unknowns and big swings up and down are characteristics of open markets.It’s impossible to forecast bitcoin’s future price because virtually all the...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Grain of Salt Required The price of gold fell $7, and that of silver 24 cents. This was a holiday shortened week, due to Thanksgiving on Thursday in the US (and likely thin trading and poor liquidity on Wednesday and Friday). So take the numbers this week, including the basis, with a grain of that once-monetary commodity,...

  A Useful Infographic When we last wrote more extensively about Bitcoin (see Parabolic Coin – evidently, it has become a lot more “parabolic” since then), we said we would soon return to the subject of Bitcoin and monetary theory in these pages. This long planned article was delayed for a number of reasons, one of which was that we realized that Keith Weiner’s series on the topic would give us a good opportunity to...

– Geopolitical risk highest “in four decades” should push gold higher – Citi – Elections, political and macroeconomic crises and war lead to gold investment – Political uncertainty in Germany means “gold likely to remain in good demand as a safe haven” say Commerzbank–  “There has rarely been such political uncertainty in Germany at any time in the country’s post-war history” – Commerzbank – Reduce counter party risk:...