Tag Archives: Gold

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact – positive and negative – from the hurricanes a few months ago though so it is probably prudent to wait for more evidence before making any definitive pronouncements about the...

The economic data over the last two weeks continued the better than expected trend. Some of the data was quite good and makes one wonder if maybe, just maybe, we are finally ready to break out of the economic doldrums. Is it possible that all that new normal, secular stagnation stuff was just a lack of animal spirits? Is it possible that the mere anticipation of tax cuts was sufficient to break us out of the 2% growth...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday to break 0.9892 level and settles below it, which stops the recently suggested positive scenario and put the price within the correctional bearish track again, noting that there is a bearish pattern that its signs appear on the chart, which means that breaking its neckline at 0.9840 will extend the pair’s losses to surpass 0.9800 and reach 0.9730 as a...

Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts – Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming– Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets– Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions– Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history– ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800...

It’s been a week of quite righteous focus on collateral. The 4-week bill equivalent yield closes it at just 114 bps, with only three days left before the RRP “floor” is moved up by the FOMC to 125 bps.  That’s too much premium in price, though we know why given what FRBNY reported for repo fails last week.  With all that, there’s really nothing much to say about what’s below. OK, there is, but I’ll save that for next...

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price – FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%– Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%– Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen– Yellen does not expect Trump’s tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy– No concern for bitcoin which ‘plays a very small...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair begins to bounce higher after approaching from 0.9892 level, supported by the EMA50 that meets the mentioned level, while stochastic shows clear bullish trend signals on the four hours time frame. Therefore, these factors encourage us to keep our positive expectations in the upcoming period, waiting for visiting 1.0038 level as a next main station, being aware that breaking 0.9892 will stop...

We’ve had a pretty good run of data recently and with the tax bill passing the Senate one would expect to see markets react positively, to reflect renewed optimism about economic growth. We have improving economic data on pretty much a global basis. It isn’t a boom by any stretch of the imagination but there is no doubt that the rate of change has recently been more positive. We also have a change in tax policy that...

Update: Cryptocurrencies are widely bid tonight with Bitcoin over $10,150, Ether holding $475, and LiteCoin topping $100 for the first time… LiteCoin Price in USD, Mar - Nov 2017(see more posts on Litecoin, ) - Click to enlarge Bitcoin has now soared over 20% since Black Friday’s close, topping $10,000 for the first time in history (rising from $9,000 in just 2 days)… now up over 950% year-to-date. image courtesy...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future… Niels Bohr Every time I see that quote I think to myself, “but that...