Tag Archives: Featured

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.29% to 1.1914 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is broadly higher as the 10-year yield probes above 3.0%. Disappointing French industrial production and manufacturing data for March provided additional incentive, as if it were needed, to extend the euro’s losses. The euro...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair’s recent trades are confined within mew minor bearish channel that we believe it forms bullish flag pattern, thus, the price needs to breach 1.0035 to activate the positive effect of this pattern followed by rallying towards our waited target at 1.0100. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, unless we witnessed clear break and hold below 1.0000. Expected...

The yield on the 10 year Treasury note briefly surpassed the supposedly important 3% barrier and then….nothing. So, maybe, contrary to all the commentary that placed such importance on that level, it was just another line on a chart and the bond bear market fear mongering told us a lot about the commentators and not a lot about the market or the economy. As I said last month, despite the recent run up in rates, the...

Effects of Monetary Pumping on the Real World As long time readers know, we are looking at the economy through the lens of Austrian capital and monetary theory (see here for a backgrounder on capital theory and the production structure). In a nutshell: Monetary pumping falsifies interest rate signals by pushing gross market rates below the rate that reflects society-wide time preferences; this distorts relative prices...

Le peuple suisse doit, le 10 juin 2018, répondre  à cette question: « Acceptez-vous l’initiative populaire « Pour une monnaie à l’abri des crises : émission monétaire uniquement par la Banque nationale ! (Initiative Monnaie pleine) » ? » Le oui à la question sous-entend que ce concept monétaire garantit la monnaie suisse et les avoirs bancaires d’une part, et d’autre part que l’ensemble des avoirs bancaires relèvent...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in April 2018 – According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of April 2018, 119,781 unemployed were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 10,632 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 2.9% in March 2018 to 2.7% in the month under review. Compared with the same month of the...

Swiss inflation reappeared in February 2018 and has continued. According to the Federal Statistical Office, inflation was 0.2% in April. Since the beginning of 2018, prices have risen 0.9%. © Björn Wylezich | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge Jan-Egbert Sturm of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute says it shows the Swiss economy is doing well, and that inflation is close to what is “normal” in Switzerland. When asked by...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.56% to 1.1885 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90.  It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are...

Stock Markets EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain under pressure. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, May 08 - Click to enlarge Indonesia Indonesia reports Q1 GDP Monday,...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Waiting for Permanent Backwardation  The price of gold dropped 9 bucks, while that of silver rose 3 cents. Readers often ask us if permanent backwardation (when gold withdraws its bid on the dollar) is still coming. We say it is certain (unless we can avert it by offering interest on gold at large scale). They ask is it...