Tag Archives: Featured

01.04.2016 09:15  – FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1603-20)                                         In several press release Swiss Statistics focuses on nominal data:But the data adjusted for inflation is more important: Real retail sales  (adjusted for holidays) -0.3% YoY Real “Core retail sales” (excluding service stations) +0.3% YoY Retail trade turnover in February 2016 Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 0.9% Neuchâtel, 01.04.2016 (FSO) – Turnover in the retail sector fell by...

Gold market analysts have for many years puzzled over the unusual behaviour of the gold market during the 1990s, specifically the bizarrely flat gold price from 1993 to 1996 in the face of sustained selling pressure from central banks and gold miners hedging their production. To-date no one has been able to identify the hidden source of demand that was obviously supporting the gold market during that period. In addition, conventional justifications that accelerated sales by central banks...

I attended a panel discussion on private blockchains in banking at UBS in NYC last night. There were two overarching misconceptions that appeared to permeate the discussions: Counterparties can be trusted, hence you can build reliable systems with trusted parties, and; Capital markets are, and always will be predicated upon the legacy, highly centralized hub and spoke model that we know today. Basically, the influential gatekeepers that control access to a centralized, authoritative...

31.03.2016 09:15  - FSO, Demography and Migration (0353-1603-10) Families and Generations Survey 2013: Relationships Where the heart is: Relationships and marriages popular Neuchâtel, 31.03.2016 (FSO) – More than three quarters of men and women aged between 18 and 80 are in a relationship and most of these live together with their partner. Marriage still remains common with four fifths of all people who live with a partner of the opposite sex being married. These are some of the findings of...

Bawerk shows that more than 3 mb/d of American oil production was helped by US$55.5bn in credit facilities, by excessive debt. This production is now at risk and the debt may not be repaid. The big OPEC players are playing against US shale oil and some smaller OPEC members that have higher costs. Another month, another flight to Hamad international airport for 17th April after initial agreement to hold ‘upstream horses’ in February 2016. While it’s no doubt great fun getting back...

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the CRB Index, a basket of commodity prices.   The technical picture has deteriorated, and the price action in the coming sessions is particularly important in determining outlook.   The CRB Index put in a double bottom.  On January 20 and February 11 lows were set just below 155.00.   The neckline of the double bottom was created in the rally between the two bottoms.  It is found near 168.00.   The measuring objective is found by...

It is widely recognized that the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen has not lifted Japanese export volumes.  In December 2015, Japanese export volumes had fallen 4.4% year-over-year after rising 3.9% in December 2014 and 2.5% in December 2013.  These are a number of explanations for this counter-intuitive result given the yen's past depreciation.  First, global demand is weak.  Second, has adopted a direct investment strategy rather than an export-orientation.  For example, many of...

The US dollar is mostly lower as the North American session is set to begin.  The holiday in many centers, especially in Europe, has limited activity, and a few orders seemed to drive prices., which remain within the recent ranges.  The Japanese yen is the main exception.  The greenback's gains have been extended into the seventh session, the longest such streak since October.  The dollar neared JPY113.70, its best levels since the FOMC meeting.   However, local press reports denying that...

Gold went down (as the muggles would measure it, in dollars). It dropped almost 40 bucks. Silver fell almost 60 cents. Since silver fell proportionally farther than gold, the gold-silver ratio went up. Why do we keep reiterating that gold goes nowhere, that it’s the dollar which mostly goes down over long periods of time and sometimes up as in 2011-2015? Why do we insist that the dollar be measured in gold, and that gold cannot be measured in dollars the way a steel meter stick cannot be...

There are four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead.  They are Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data, eurozone March CPI and PMI, and Japan's Tankan Survey.   The broad backdrop is characterized by the rebuilding of risk appetites since the middle of February, though the MSCI emerging market equity index put in its low on January 20, as did the CRB Index.  The price of oil appeared to bottom then as well, but it retested the lows in mid-February and...