Tag Archives: Featured

Standard deviation (sigma σ) measures volatility or the dispersion of random values around the mean of a variable such as a portfolio or individual stock prices, but does not measure the direction of a trend. Standard Deviation as volatility measure What has become the bedrock of finance is an out-of-date almost universally accepted finance theory, which uses the statistical normal distribution (the Gaussian bell curve) as the measure of risk per se. In reality stocks are found not to be...

In the famous Sherlock Holmes Story, the detective identified the perpetrator from the fact that a dog didn’t bark. The dog didn’t bark because it knew the perpetrator. This story makes a good analogy to what happened on Thursday, Sep 17. Perhaps I should say what did not happen. The Fed did not raise the interest rate. In fact, the Fed would bankrupt itself if it tried to raise rates significantly. However, it had set everyone’s expectations that it would hike interest. It risks losing...

Consider the sport of betting on the sport of horse racing. It’s actually similar to the analysis of the gold and silver markets. How’s that? The Gold Cup Horses First, there is the manic-depressive crowd. Sometimes (as we are told—we don’t hang out at race tracks) the bettors sometimes get overly excited about a horse with slim chances to win, or get totally unexcited about a strong horse. The track responds by lowering or raising the payout for winning, respectively. The more betting...

The stock market works very differently than the natural world. When an animal is spooked, its first reaction is to freeze. Naturalists say that freezing helps animals escape the attention of predators, which hunt by sensing movement. Try that trick in the stock market – freezing when you should be taking action – and you’ll either be knocked silly by the bears or left behind by the bulls. Instincts are counter-productive We do not believe in the “rely on your gut” principle, propagated on...

As I have discussed previously, if you borrow cash then it’s not income. This is why no one in his right mind borrows to buy consumer goods. Those who try cannot sustain it for long.What if someone else borrows? Suppose someone else—let’s call her Jordyn—buys your house from you, at a higher price than you originally paid for it. You can spend some of the gain. Of course she is just paying you with her borrowed proceeds, but most people think this is totally different than if you borrow to...

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) shows that the financial markets have always been awash with its own brand of Sirens, who dolefully prophesied the complete collapse of whole economic systems. For him Pericles gave the best advice: “The key is not to predict the future, but to be prepared for it!” —————————————————————————————— In Homer’s Odyssey, the Sirens were dangerous and beautiful maidens, who irresistibly lured sailors with their enchanting, but sad, music and...

The Federal Reserve puts on a conference in the idyllic location of Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Of course it’s all about how best to centrally plan our little lives for us, and who is to be sacrificed to whom. The American Principles Project and the Atlas Network Sound Money Project, provided a much needed alternative in the Jackson Hole Summit. By choosing the same time and place as the Fed, Steve Lonegan capitalized on the publicity. In fact, the #jacksonholesummit hashtag was trending on...

Since the financial crisis central banks in developed nations increased their balance sheets. The leading one was the American Federal Reserve that increased the monetary base (M0, often called “narrow money”), followed by the Bank of Japan and recently the ECB. In most cases the extension of narrow money did neither have an effect on banks’ money supply, the so called “broad money” (M1-M3), nor on price inflation. For the Swiss, however, the rising money supply concerned both narrow and...

Swiss GDP increased by 0.2% q/q and 1.2% y/y. Once again, investments on equipment and software (+3.6%) was one of the main drivers. For many economists investment on equipment and software is the most desired GDP growth component. SECO: Gross domestic product in 2nd quarter 2015  (source)Each quarter, the Swiss department of economics (SECO) estimates the GDP and its components. The main purpose of these estimations is to provide data that allows for an assessment of the cyclical...

National accounts in Switzerland in 2014 Press Release by Swiss Statistics (FSO) Foreign trade the main source of growth Neuchâtel, 27.08.2015 (FSO) – In 2014 the Swiss economy registered a growth in grossdomestic product (GDP) of 1.9% at the previous year’s prices (+1.8% in 2013).Taking a slight  decrease in the general price level into account, GDP at current prices grew by 1.2% (2013:+1.7%). Foreign trade strongly contributed to the rise in GDP in 2014 due to sustained growthin exports...