Tag Archives: Featured

It might not be on investors’ calendars, but European officials will take steps toward addressing two issues tomorrow.  First, the EC will make a preliminary recommendation of visa-free travel in the Schengen area for Turkish passport holders.  Second, the ECB governing council will hold a non-monetary policy meeting.  It is expected to discuss the future of the 500-euro note. In exchange for implementing previously agreed upon measures to address the refugees going from Turkey to...

The US dollar’s downtrend is extending.  The euro traded above $1.16 for the first time since last August. With Japanese markets closed for the second half of the Golden Week holidays, perhaps participants felt less hampered by the risk of intervention and pushed the dollar to almost JPY105.50.  Despite an unexpectedly large fall in the UK’s manufacturing PMI (49.2 from 50.7), sterling has pushed to its highest level in four months (~$1.4770). The Australian dollar is the main exception. ...

02.05.2016 09:15  – FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1604-60) Retail trade turnover in March 2016 Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 2.4% Neuchâtel, 02.05.2016 (FSO) – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.4% in nominal terms in March 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real...

02.05.2016 09:15  – FSO, Economic Surveys (0353-1604-60) Retail trade turnover in March 2016 Swiss retail trade turnover falls by 2.4% Neuchâtel, 02.05.2016 (FSO) – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.4% in nominal terms in March 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real...

Odd Couple While checking on the US primaries a few days ago, we came across a piece of news informing us that pretend candle-swallower Ted Cruz had picked Carly Fiorina as his “vice-presidential running mate”. Our first thought upon hearing this was “WTF”? The match made in heaven… two loooosers find each other. Photo credit: AP It’s not so much that he’s picking another “loooooser” as The Donald would put it…the real absurdity of it is that even if Cruz were to win every single one of...

This post is extremely important for understanding the differences between CPI inflation in Europe and in the U.S. “Shelter” makes up 32.8% of the U.S. CPI basket, or 42% of the core inflation rate. It is mostly driven by “Owner’s equivalent rent of primary residence”. Shelter inflation in the U.S. is 3.2% per year (March 2016), but shelter inflation is only 1% in Europe. CPI in the United States (source) in % Shelter 32.776    Rent of primary residence 5.930   Lodging away from home...

Yesterday, China announced one of the most important tax reforms of the past twenty years.  It is replacing a business tax on gross revenue for non-manufacturing companies with a VAT.   Manufacturing companies have been subject to a VAT approach for a few years.  The reform extends it from manufacturing and a few services in a pilot program to industry-wide application. It will now cover construction, real estate, finance and consumer services. The shift to the VAT is expected to reduce...

EM ended the week on a firm note, which should carry over into this week.  The biggest near-term risk to EM is the US jobs data on Friday, as the weekly claims data points to another strong gain.  Otherwise, the global liquidity backdrop remains EM-supportive. Thailand reported April CPI earlier today.  It rose 0.07% year-over-year.  The market expected another decline after the  -0.5% in March.  This is well below the 1-4% target range.  However, growth remains quite robust, averaging...

In quiet turnover, with China, Hong Kong, Singapore and London markets closed, the US dollar is trading with a heavier bias against all the major currencies.  Lower commodity prices, including oil and copper, appears to be taking a toll on some emerging market currencies, including the South African rand. Japanese markets were closed last Friday and will be closed the next three sessions.  The yen appreciated nearly 5% in the aftermath of the FOMC/BOJ meetings last week.  The greenback’s...

  The Metals Take Off Photo via sprottmoney.com The price of gold shot up over $60 this week. The price of silver moved up proportionally, gaining over $0.85. The mood is now palpable. The feeling in the air is that of long suffering suddenly turned to optimism. Big gains, if not the collapse of the price-suppression cartel, are now inevitable. The headlines and articles, screaming for gold to hit $10,000 to $50,000, are pervasive. Today we won’t dwell on our favorite point that if the...