Sometimes Swiss voters are presented with questions that only specialists are equipped to answer. The vote on 10 June 2018 to change their monetary system appears to be one of these. © Valeriya Potapova | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge On the surface it appears simple. Upon closer inspection it contains much complexity and uncertainty, compounded by a widespread misunderstanding of how the financial system works –...
Read More »Rapid escalation in Swiss fines for freight trucks
Swiss plans to reduce freight road traffic are set to miss targets. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge An increasing number of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) are being pulled over for motoring offences at border crossings. Customs officials have reported 83% more violations in the last eight years, rising from 17,997 on 2010 to 32,967 last year. A further 24,464 fines and cautions were issued against HGVs according...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Power
There are several trends in the capital markets at a high-level. The euro and yen’s decline has coincided with sustained rallies in European and Japanese equity benchmarks. Emerging market equities and currencies have been trending lower. There are two other trends that arguably are reinforcing if not causing the other trends. Both oil prices and U0S interest rates have been trending higher. It is unusual but not...
Read More »Emerging Markets: What Changed
Summary Bank Indonesia started a tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike to 4.5%. Jailed Malaysia opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was released by new Prime Minister Mahathir. Malaysia scrapped the controversial 6% goods and services tax (GST). Violent protests shook Israel as the relocated US embassy opened in Jerusalem. Argentina committed to fiscal tightening as part of a comprehensive IMF program. Brazil central bank...
Read More »US 10-Year Surges, Emerging Markets Implode…Where Next for Gold?
US 10-Year Surges, Emerging Markets Implode…Where Next for Gold? US 10-Year Yields Top 3%, US Dollar Pushes Higher Brent Hits $80, Highest in 4 years Emerging Market Chaos, the Lira and Peso in Freefall Italy’s New Coalition Signal Their Plans, Yields Jump Japanese Economy Contracts, GDP Worst Since 2015 And Where Next for Gold? Gold and silver ended the week down (USD -2.2%, GBP -1.4%, and EUR -0.5%) as rising US...
Read More »Swiss Rail drops plan to put Wi-Fi in trains
Swiss Rail has dropped plans to install Wi-Fi in its trains, according to the newspaper Le Matin. © Katie Nesling | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge After a survey revealed that customers would only use on-board Wi-Fi it was free, the company decided there was no justifiable way to cover the cost, according the the newspaper. Swiss Rail is not prepared to bear the costs the mobile operators would charge them for the...
Read More »And Now For Something Completely Different
Back in February, Japan’s Cabinet Office reported that Real GDP in Japan had grown in Q4 2017 for the eighth consecutive quarter. It was the longest streak of non-negative GDP since the 1980’s. Predictably, this was hailed as some significant achievement, a true masterstroke of courage and perseverance. It was taken as a sign that Abenomics and QQE was finally working (never mind the four years). Those making that...
Read More »Disability welfare – fraud investigations expected to save 170 million
© Andrea De Martin | Dreamstime.com By January 2018, the number receiving disability welfare in Switzerland had dropped to 217,200, 40,300 fewer than in 2006 when the number reached a record 257,500. Switzerland’s Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO) attributes the reduction to an occupational rehabilitation programme started in 2008, and disability welfare fraud investigations. In 2017, 40,800 disability...
Read More »Tax Cuts And (Less) Spending
After being rumored and talked about for over a year, at the end of last year the tax cuts were finally delivered. The idea had captured much market attention during that often anxious period of political flirtation. Prices would rise or fall by turn based on whether or not it seemed a realistic possibility. Public Law #115-97 or An Act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to titles II and V of the concurrent...
Read More »Europe chart of the week – Italy’s fiscal buffers
The incoming government’s fiscal plans could result in a sharp deterioration of Italy’s public finances. However, broader fiscal metrics are better than they were during the euro sovereign crisis. The M5S-League coalition has committed to a significant degree of fiscal easing and to the reversal of some structural reforms. Such policies will put Italy on course for confrontation with Brussels over deficit reduction...
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