Tag Archives: Featured

The trajectory of monetary policy in the US and Europe has been fairly clear. There is practically no doubt that the Fed will hike rates on September 26. Despite softer than expected PPI and CPI figures, the market has become more confident of another move in December. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind reaches its maximum velocity of $50 bln a month in Q4. Eurozone It is also understood that ECB will reduce...

Stock Markets EM FX ended mixed in Friday, capping off an up and down week.  RUB and TRY initially firmed on their respective rate hikes but gave back some of those gains heading into the weekend. Trade tensions are likely to remain high, as press reports suggest President Trump is pushing ahead with tariffs on $200 bln of Chinese imports even as high-level talks are planned. With US rates pushing higher, we think the...

© Hai Huy Ton That | Dreamstime.com Ticket machines once replaced many of the people selling ticket from counters. Now the internet and mobile phones threatens ticket machines. As more and more people use dash past ticket machines with an electronic train ticket in their pocket, Swiss Rail is looking at phasing out some machines according to various newspapers including 20 Minutes. The 150 machines selling fewer than 20...

EuroAiport is located in France, in the tri-national Upper Rhine Region, just a few kilometres northwest of the Swiss city of Basel. The EuroAirport Basel-Mulhouse-Fribourg Airport should be accessible by rail by 2028. Project leaders are convinced that trains will replace the buses currently connecting the city of Basel to the airport within ten years. The French national railway company SNCF said on Thursday that is...

Cushing, OK, delivered what it could for the CPI. The contribution to the inflation rate from oil prices was again substantial in August 2018. The energy component of the index gained 10.3% year-over-year, compared to 11.9% in July. It was the fourth straight month of double digit gains. Yet, the CPI headline retreated a little further than expected. After reaching the highest since December 2011 the month before,...

But there is room for further improvement. This week euro area employment data confirmed that labour market recovery remains on track. Employment grew at 0.4% q-o-q in Q2 2018, marking the 20th consecutive quarter of expansion. Employment is now 2.4% above its pre-crisis (2008) level. Since Q2 2013, 9.2 million jobs have been created in the euro area. One development of note is that employment growth has been broad,...

© Denis Linine | Dreamstime.com Broadly, Switzerland’s agricultural sector costs the country CHF 19.9 billion while contributing only CHF 3.4 billion, concludes a study published by the think tank Avenir Suisse. The CHF 19.9 billion cost the report’s authors calculate is made up of tax breaks and direct federal and cantonal payments to the sector (4.9b), the cost of artificially inflated consumer prices due to import...

Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent – at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their collective opinion. Given what’s happened this...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% at 1.1277 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar traded above JPY112 in early Asia, for the first time since early August but it could not take out the high recorded then (~JPY112.10) and has come off a bit in Europe. There is a $493 mln option struck at JPY112 that will expire...

The main risk facing ECB watchers is that the next few meetings of the Governing Council will be increasingly boring and predictable. However, from the central bankers’ perspective, this may considered a sign of success, “like a referee whose success is judged by how little his or her decisions intrude into the game itself”, to quote former BoE Governor Mervyn King. Back to the economy, downside risks stemming from...