Tag Archives: Currency Movement

Overview: The US dollar has been confined to narrow ranges today as the market awaits the October employment report. Barring a significant upside surprise, we suspect the dollar is more likely extend this week's losses. The Dollar Index is off about 0.5% this week. Within the narrow ranges, it is sporting a slightly softer profile again nearly all the G10 currencies. It is also lower against most emerging market currencies, but tight ranges dominate. Similarly,...

Overview: We suspect that if Martians read the FOMC statement, which was nearly identical to the September statement and listened to Chair Powell, they would conclude there was nothing new. Yet, the market habitually hears Powell as dovish and this has weighed on rates and the dollar, while lifting risk appetites. Follow-through selling of the greenback has dragged it lower against all the major currencies, with the Antipodean leading the way, and nearly all the...

Overview: The FOMC meeting is today's highlight but the drama in Japan continues to rivet the market. The Ministry of Finance warned of the risk of material intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the BOJ bought bonds in an unscheduled operation a day after its downgraded the 1.0% cap to a reference rate, whatever that means. The yen is trading with a slightly firmer bias. The Swiss franc is also trading a little firmer, but the other G10 currencies are a...

Overview: The Bank of Japan softened its 1.0% cap on the 10-year, while lifting its core CPI forecast this fiscal year and next. This disappointed many who anticipated a bolder move to exit the extraordinary monetary policy. The yen was sold in disappointment and the dollar has returned to the JPY150.75 area. The eurozone contracted by 0.1% in Q3, while October CPI came in below expectations at 2.9%. The greenback is softer against most of the other G10 currencies....

Overview: Fears that the Israel-Hamas war was going to widen this past weekend sent gold and oil sharply higher at the end of last week. A reportedly more restrained Israeli entrance into Gaza has seen gold pullback back below $2000 (~-0.6%) and December WTI soften (~-1.7%). The US dollar is mostly softer. Stronger-than-expected Australian retail sales fan the risk of a hike next week and this appears to be helping the Australian dollar lead the advancing G10...

Overview: The capital markets seemed to have an exaggerated response to the US CPI, where the headline rate, flattered by the rise in energy, rose by 0.1% in September than forecast. Rather than decline, the headline year-over-year rate was unchanged at 3.7%. The core rate was as expected slowing to 4.1% from 4.3%. Next week's US data, including retail sales, industrial production, existing home sales, and the index of leading economic indicators are expected to...

Overview: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. It is confined to narrow ranges ahead of today's CPI report. The Russian ruble is the strongest of the emerging market currencies following the imposition of new capital controls, forcing many exporters to repatriate their foreign earnings. After posting a key upside reversal at the end of last week, gold continues to recover. It nearly $1883 so far today, the best level in more than two weeks. November WTI...

Overview: Broadly speaking, the dollar's recent pullback was extended today but the momentum appears to be slowing, perhaps ahead of tomorrow's US CPI report. The Dollar Index slipped to its lowest level since September 25 before steadying. The greenback is mixed as the North American market is set to open. The dollar bloc and Swedish krona are the underperformers. The Swiss franc is the best, up about 0.2%, while the yen and euro are little changed. Most emerging...

Overview: The market continues to monitor developments in Israel and the Middle East. The economic calendar is light today and the market is showing a strong appetite for risk. Except for China and South Korea, large bourses in the Asia Pacific rallied. Japan's indices jumped more than 2% and Australia by 1% to lead the region. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up 1.5% near midday, which, if sustained would be the largest in nearly a month. US index futures are firmer. After...

Overview: There are three main developments. First, the market is digesting the implication of the US employment data, where the optics were strong (336k increase in nonfarm payrolls compared with 170k median forecast in Bloomberg and Dow Jones surveys) but some details were disappointing (like the third consecutive decline in full-time posts, seasonally adjusted). Second, Chinese mainland market re-opened after a six-day holiday). Chinese stocks slipped and...