Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

If those on the opposite side of the trade are viewed as threats rather than friends, it’s time to revise the analysis. Of the many self-generated dangers investors face, few are more dangerous than confirmation bias, the comfort we experience seeking out views that confirm our own positions and our resistance to studying opposing views. Confirmation bias is both self-evident and complex. We all understand the psychologically soothing feeling when others heartily...

The momentum of franchise success and centralization of power are fatal. Loonshots are like moonshots, only crazier and trickier to commercialize. Author Safi Bahcall titled his book on how to nurture change-the-world innovations Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries. But as Bahcall persuasively argues, loonshot innovations aren’t enough. You also need to nurture franchises that commercialize the innovations...

Global food production rests on soil and rain. Robots don’t change that. Of all the modern-day miracles, the least appreciated is the incredible abundance of low cost food in the U.S. and other developed countries.The era of cheap food is ending, for a variety of mutually reinforcing reasons. We’ve become so dependent on industrial-scale agriculture fueled by diesel that we’ve forgotten that when it comes to producing food, “every little bit helps”–even small...

The cycles of The Fourth Turning, Fischer and Turchin are all in alignment at this point in history.. The 1997 book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy proposed a cyclical pattern of four 20-year generations which culminate in a national crisis every 80 years.The book identifies these dates as Fourth Turnings: 1781 (Revolutionary War), 1861 (Civil War) and 1941 (global war). add 80 years and voila, 2021. I use the term Fourth Turning generically to describe an...

All of these are structural dynamics that won’t go away in a few months or years. Let’s explore what’s different now compared to recessions of the past 60 years. 1. Deglobalization is inflationary. Offshoring production to low-cost countries imported deflation (product prices remained flat or declined) and boosted corporate profits. Deglobalization will increase costs and pressure profits. Just as cleaning up the environmental damage of rampant industrialization...

The EU’s crisis isn’t limited to energy. It is a manifestation of the global breakdown of Neocolonialism, Financialization and Globalization. The European Union (EU) was seen as the culmination of a centuries-long process of integration that would finally put an end to the ceaseless conflicts that had led to disastrous wars in the 20th century that had knocked Europe from global preeminence. Wary of the predations of the U.S. and rising Asian powers, European nations...

Any city whose lifeblood ultimately depends on hyper-globalization and hyper-financializationwill no longer be viable. The human migration from the countryside to cities has been an enduring feature of civilization.Cities concentrate wealth, productivity and power, and so they’re magnets to talent and capital, offering newcomers the greatest opportunities. Cities are efficient, packing population, productivity and wealth creation into small areas.Slums and sweatshops...

If we insist on doing the transition the hard, slow, costly way rather than the easy, fast, cheap way, it’s going to be a needlessly arduous, soul-crushing slog. Let’s cover a few common-sense points and ask a few questions about the Global Energy Crunch.Let’s start with the high-tech, super-costly solutions that many promote as the surefire source of abundant, affordable energy: thorium reactors, mini/modular-reactors, clean coal plants and fusion. Every one of...

As the word suggests, cannibalism won’t end well for those consumed by the infinitely insatiable few. Cannibalize is an interesting word. It is a remarkably graphic way to describe the self-inflicted destruction of a system by stripping previously functional subsystems to sustain the illusion of system functionality. Here are some examples. An Air Force which routinely posts photos of its impressive fleet of 100 aircraft has been cannibalizing parts from 80 aircraft...

While it’s fun to sort all the propaganda into various boxes, we would do well to look for what all the marketers / MoP players seek to mystify. It’s time once again to check for Ministry of Propaganda updates, which like Windows and iOS is constantly being updated to counter new threats and enhance the user experience (heh). Much like the other operating systems that underpin our daily lives, the core functions of the MoP don’t change much.My chart from 2007...