Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% at 1.1229 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 07(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The combination of robust US jobs and wage growth, more comforting words from Powell and a strong rally US stocks before the weekend helped lift Asian markets today and underpinned risk-taking appetites. However, renewed protests in France (and Hungary)...

The S&P 500 fell more than 12% in a few weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 40 bp. There were cries that the sky was falling. A recession is imminent, we are warned by prognosticators. The Fed went ahead and raised interest rates on March 21, 2018, and the S&P 500 proceeded to gap lower the next day and continued to sell-off the following day. Investors did not like the unanimous decision. Yet far from...

The New Year is off to an auspicious start. The Japanese yen, the third most actively traded currency behind the dollar and euro, got caught in a vortex of a retail short squeeze, algos, and who knows what else. The US dollar plunged from around JPY109 to a slightly below JPY105 in a few minutes a little more than an hour after US markets closed yesterday.   Japanese markets were still closed for the holiday, which may...

The IMF offers the most authoritative report on central bank reserves on a quarterly basis with a quarter lag. The report, the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), covering Q318 has been released. It may be have been overlooked during the holidays, but if and when the pundits see it, the leading takeaway is that the dollar’s share of global reserves fell below 62% for the first time five...

The $1.1475-$1.1550 is an important area for the euro. Many bulls see a rounded bottom being carved and a break above it would be embraced as a confirmation. The lower-end corresponds to the 100-day moving average. Such a bottom pattern, if confirmed, would project toward $1.1800 the high in H2 18. On the downside, the low from H2 18 was near $1.1200. This is just above a key (61.8%) retracement of the January...

Overview: The biggest reversal in the S&P 500 since 2010, allowing it to string the biggest two-day rally in three years helped lift Asian and European shares today. All the Asia-Pacific equity markets advanced today but Japan, where the strength of the yen saw the Nikkei and Topix buck the move. European equities. The 1.4% rally in the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 near midday in Europe retraces 2/3 of this...

People do not just disagree on what should and will happen, but they disagree on what has happened. As William Faulkner instructed: “The past is not dead. Actually, it’s not even past. This is clear in the narratives about the sharp drop in equity markets. It seems that the most common explanation places the onus on the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Powell’s was seemingly hawkishness in early October (during a time when...

Over the past five sessions, the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating about 1.7% against the US dollar, eclipsing the Swedish krona, which rallied strongly today after the Riksbank’s surprise rate hike. Given the sell-off in equities and the decline in markets, the yen’s strength is not surprising. What was surprising though was the dollar’s resilience against the yen earlier this month as equities...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% at 1.1308 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: There is little reprieve from the equity meltdown ahead of the weekend.  Major markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, China, India, and Australia pushed lower. The MSCI index of the region is near 15-month lows. The Dow...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.20% at 1.1334 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Once again the US equity market failed to hold on to even minimal upticks. The sharply lower close spurred follow-through selling in global equities. Few have been spared the wrath of investors who apparently were disappointed with the...