Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

After falling against all the major currencies in June, the US dollar rebounded in July. The Dollar Index finished the month at new two-year highs with the Fed’s suggestion it was engaged in a mid-course correction rather than a sustained easing cycle. The dollar also appeared buoyed by the extent of the dovishness by the ECB and the heightened risks that the UK leaves the EU at the end of October without an agreement....

The October 31 deadline for the UK to leave the EU is less than 100 days away.  The new Prime Minister is beginning to convince others that that UK will, in fact, leave at the end of October.   PredictIt.Org shows the odds of the UK leaving has risen to almost 50% from about a 33% chance a month ago.   Here is a summary of where the situation stands and some key dates going forward.  Boris Johnson handily won the Tory...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.40% to 1.0929 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The market was finding its sea legs after being hit with wave and counter-wave following the FOMC decision, and more importantly, Powell’s attempt to give insight into the Fed’s thinking. Trump’s tweet than signaled an end to the tariff...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.0989 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The Federal Reserve delivered the first rate cut since the Great Financial Crisis but couched it in terms of a mid-course correction rather than the start of a larger easing cycle. By doing so, Fed chief Powell cast the cut in less...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.1026 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After a shellacking in recent days, sterling has stabilized though there is not much of a bounce to speak of, suggesting the adjustment to the risk of a no-deal Brexit may not be complete. After the S&P 500 posted back-to-back...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% to 1.1037 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The prospect of a no-deal Brexit continues to pound sterling lower. A little more than two months ago, it was testing $1.32. Two weeks ago it was around $1.25. Today it traded near $1.2120 before stabilizing. On the other hand, the 10-year...

Has the SNB started to intervene The weekly site deposit data from the Swiss National Bank showed a small uptick but with some perspective, it’s a notable turn. Bloomberg highlights the bump and what looks like a bid to keep EUR/CHF above 1.10. I don’t think SNB is going to make a strong stand at 1.10 but expect them to cushion any falls in the pair unless there is a big run on risk assets. SNB Sight Deposits...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.13% to 1.1037 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Unrest in Hong Kong and disappointing earnings reports from South Korea weighed on local equity markets, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third consecutive session. European equities are edging higher in tentative trading....

There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on July 31. We never thought the chances of a 50 bp move were anything but negligible, though even at this late stage, the market appears to be pricing in about a one-in-five chance. Although a minority, and maybe worth a dissent or two (Rosengren? George?), we are sympathetic to those Fed officials that do not...

- Click to enlarge 1. As soon as it was clear that the ECB was not easing today, the euro began to recover, after making a marginal new low for the year (just above $1.11). 2. Draghi made it clear that easing was going to be delivered in September and on several fronts including rates (with mitigating measures like tiering) and new asset purchases (not decided on instruments, which plays into speculation of equity...