Summary The IEA forecast that the surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought. Philippine President Duterte called for US troops to leave the southern island of Mindanao. Relations between Poland and the EU are deteriorating. Former head of Brazil’s lower house Eduardo Cunha was expelled and banned from public office for eight years. Brazil’s central bank cut the amount of daily reverse swap contracts sold to 5,000. Stock Markets In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Thailand (+2.2%), Qatar (flat), and Indonesia (-0.1%) have outperformed this week, while Colombia (-4.0%), Brazil (-3.4%), and Taiwan (-3.0%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -2.7% this week while MSCI DM fell -0.9%. In the EM local currency bond space, South Africa (10-year yield -6 bp), Czech Republic (+1 bp), and China (+1 bp) have outperformed this week, while Hong Kong (10-year yield +20 bp), the Philippines (+18 bp), and Russia (+16 bp) have underperformed. To put this in better context, the 10-year UST yield rose 1 bp this week to 1.69%. In the EM FX space, ZAR (+0.8% vs. USD), PLN (+0.7% vs. EUR), and CNH (+0.6% vs. USD) have outperformed this week, while MXN (-3.7% vs. USD), KRW (-2.1% vs. USD), and MYR (-1.4% vs. USD) have underperformed.
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Summary
The IEA forecast that the surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought.
Philippine President Duterte called for US troops to leave the southern island of Mindanao.
Relations between Poland and the EU are deteriorating.
Former head of Brazil’s lower house Eduardo Cunha was expelled and banned from public office for eight years.
Brazil’s central bank cut the amount of daily reverse swap contracts sold to 5,000.