SNB & CHF

As the second week of this Asian business trip gets underway, I am in Hong Kong.  I was on Bloomberg TV in the Asian morning to discuss market developments with Angie Lau. The 4.5 minute discussion covers a number of topics, including the outlook for Fed policy, the BOJ, dollar outlook and game theory.   Click here for the link. Previous post

17.05.2016 09:15  – FSO, Prices (0353-1605-20) Producer and Import Price Index in April 2016 0.3% rise in Producer and Import Price Index Neuchâtel, 17.05.2016 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in April 2016 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.3 points (base December 2015 = 100). Whereas the Producer Price Index increased by 0.2%, the Import Price Index rose by 0.4%. The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with April...

Oil from the Swiss pine is the latest export hit from southwestern Switzerland. As well as creating atmospheric fragrance, it’s supposed to be good for your health. But can the oil kick-start canton Graubünden's ailing economy? (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch...

The US dollar is mostly weaker today.  It appears to be consolidating the gains scored since the reversal on May 3. Sterling and the Australian dollar are leading the way early in Europe.   The Australian dollar’s gains appear more intuitively clear.  The minutes from the recent RBA meeting indicated that it was a closer decision.  This means that a follow-up rate cut next month is unlikely, which is what we have argued.  While short-term participants may be surprised today, the...

After three consecutive weeks of seemingly relentless bad news for Apple, moments ago the stock jumped by $2 dollars, rising from $90.5 to over $92.50. There was some confusion as to why the jump and then it was revealed that none other than that “other” billionaire, Warren Buffett, has decided to start building a stake in the world’s biggest cell phone company to the tune of 9.8 million shares or about $1.07 billion as of March 31. Making some more sense of the transaction, CNBC adds this...

  Sweet Authoritative Nothings The People’s Daily. “Authoritative Person” may be hiding somewhere in the picture to the left. There is a mysterious figure making regular appearances in China’s government mouthpiece “People’s Daily”, which simply goes by the name “authoritative person” (AP). This unnamed entity always tends to show up with bad news for assorted speculators, by suggesting that various scenarios associated with monetary and/ or fiscal stimulus are actually not in China’s...

  Federal Reserve – still managing to maintain enough confidence Photo credit: Adam Fagen / Flickr Confidence Not Lost Yet The price of gold moved down about sixteen bucks, while that of silver dropped about three dimes. In other words, the dollar gained 0.3 milligrams of gold and 0.04 grams of silver. We continue to read stories of the “loss of confidence in central banks.” We may not know the last detail of what that will look like—when it occurs one day. However, we will wager an...

Don’t Plan on Living in St. Petersburg… GENEVA, Switzerland – When we left you last week, we were describing why neither democracy nor planning works on a large scale. Austrian School economist Friedrich Hayek described the problem with great thoroughness in his book The Fatal Conceit. The Fatal Conceit: central economic planning is literally impossible – there can be no centrally planned rational economy. Individual planning is distinct from central planning, in that the many...

The most notable thing is not what has happened, but what has not happened.  The market has not responded to the soft Chinese data over the weekend.  Chinese equities began softer but recovered fully and the Shanghai Composite closed on its highs.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is snapping a two-day losing streak with a 0.5% gain. The Australian dollar is often perceived be influenced by developments in China.  China’s disappointing industrial output figures (6.0% from 6.8% in March and...

EM ended last week on a soft note, and that weakness seems likely to carry over into this week.  Dollar sentiment turned more positive after firm retail sales data on Friday, though US rates markets have yet to reflect any increase in Fed tightening expectations.  Over the weekend, China reported weaker than expected April IP, retail sales, and fixed asset investment.  This continues a string of weak data for the month, and will undercut notions that the world’s second largest economy is...