SNB & CHF

EM ended last week on a sour note. The most important factor for global risk appetite has become China, with the Fed tightening cycle now on the back burner.  Our base case remains that China muddles through, but policymakers there need to communicate better with the markets.  The PBOC fix and Chinese equity market performance will likely be the biggest drivers for global markets this week.  Commodity prices continue to slide, with oil and copper making new cycle lows last week and...

The market is trying to get its bearings today. The large decline in the US equities before the weekend has had modest spillover effects elsewhere.  Equity markets, barring the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites, are mostly modestly lower.  The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is off about 1% while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is less than 0.5% lower in late-London morning turnover.   Iranian oil sanctions were lifted.  Oil prices are off a little more than 1% today, with Brent and WTI briefly slipped...

It has come to my attention that, perhaps, the great stock bull market is done. To most people, a bull market is good, and its end is bad. After all, a rising market signifies a healthy economy. Investors are making money. And it seems to prove that the free market is validated, able to deliver miracles despite Obamacare. Share prices are connected to business productivity, aren’t they? In a free market they are, of course. However—and this cannot be said too often—we don’t have a free...

There is a great lyric in Won’t Get Fooled Again by The Who: Then I’ll get on my knees and prayWe don’t get fooled again Remember last week, when the price of silver spiked? On Thursday that week, the price was moving sideways around $14. Then around 5am (Arizona time), the price began to rise. Before 11am, it had hit $14.38. And then it was all over. The price went downhill from there, the rest of the day and all day Friday. It closed at $13.93. The same thing happened this Thursday, with...

Two weeks into the year and most investors are nursing sizable drawdowns.  The recovery in the US equities on January 14 looked like a potential turning point. However, the coattails proved non-existent, and the bull trap was sprung with new downside momentum established before the weekend. The obvious takeaway is that the current driver is not to be found in New York.   And to be sure, we are not just talking about equities, but during this market meltdown, correlations between various...

David Bittner is a biologist and well-known bear photographer. In the Alaskan wilderness he gets closer to these impressive predators than anybody else. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel: Website: http://www.swissinfo.ch...

Speculative activity in the CME currency futures picked up in the latest reporting period. There were six significant gross position adjustments, which in our work is more than 10k contracts.   The gross short speculative euro position was reduced by 17.9k contracts, leaving 209.6k. Since early December, 53k gross short euro contracts were covered.  During the same time, about 17k gross long contracts were added.   Speculators stayed long the yen for the second consecutive week, and...

The US dollar remains strong against most currencies.  The exceptions are the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and euro though the franc and euro pulled back in the US afternoon before the weekend.  The greenback is still appreciating on a trade-weighted basis, which is the metric that counts in assessing its impact on the overall economy.   The euro, yen and franc strength is not as is often portrayed as some kind of safe haven that is flocked to in turbulent times.  Rather those currencies...

Last week’s market action confirmed clearly its corrective trend. I cannot say more than that, because when systematic risk kicks in the good, the bad, and the ugly all suffer the same slippery fate. Clearly it prophecies a healthy renewal once this bear trend is over, but first this downward phase has to be over-done before there is a capitulation that would signal a key reversal. For now, there is not much to expect. As the market is in the grip of a profit recession on the one side, and...

Several Republican presidential candidates are floating the idea of returning to some form of a gold standard in the U.S., although none have gone into any great detail. So, how might a modern gold standard work? It’s a question that requires us to do more than just look to the past with an eye toward “restoring,” “bringing back,” or “returning to” gold-backed money. Sound money advocates need to also think creatively about how to adapt hard money principles to the current and future needs...