SNB & CHF

Here's an excellent analysis for any history enthusiast on the comparison between the Roman empire in decline and the American empire.

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0859 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It took some time for investors to recognize that the scaling back of US tariff plans was not part of a de-escalation agreement. There was an explicit acknowledgment by US Commerce Secretary Ross that there was no quid pro quo. The US tariff split was more about the US than an overture...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...

Der Bundesrat behauptet, es bestehe bei der SNB kein Solvenz-Risiko. Er begründet das in seiner Botschaft an das Parlament mit einer Fussnote zu einer anderen Fussnote, die es in einer Festschrift so gar nicht gibt. Das ist liederliche Arbeit in Bundesbern; und das zu einem Thema, das staatspolitisch von grösster Tragweite ist. Kürzlich verkündete unsere Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) einen Halbjahresgewinn von fast 40 Milliarden Franken. Das Eigenkapital betrage...

If you like rate cuts and think they are powerful tools to help manage a soft patch, then there was good news in two international oil reports over the last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for global demand growth for the seventh straight month. On Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its estimates for the third time in four months. That wasn’t all, as the EIA’s report focused in on some more sobering aspects...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.39% to 1.0862 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December. This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets. However, as the news...

Der Schweizer Franken wurde zuletzt deutlich stärker gegenüber dem Euro. (Bild: Pixeljoy/Shutterstock.com) Die Zinssenkunkung der US-Notenbank Fed und die von der EZB angekündigten Massnahmen zur Lockerung der Geldpolitik sowie die jüngsten Ereignisse im Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China haben den Druck auf den Franken erhöht. Die Schweizer Währung wurde zuletzt deutlich stärker. In der letzten Woche sank der Euro erstmals seit zwei Jahren unter die Marke...

USD/CHF daily chart USD/CHF is trading off 2-month lows below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). US equity markets are rising sharply as US tariffs are to be delayed to December 15. The news was perceived as risk-on, sending safe-haven CHF, JPY and gold down. USD/CHF daily chart, August 14(see more posts on USD/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge USD/CHF 4-hour chart USD/CHF broke through several resistance levels but is still trading below its main SMAs....

What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else. This was the scenario increasingly considered over the second half of 2018 and the first few months of 2019; whether or not recession. Over the past...

There is an ongoing tug-of-war between trade tensions and fundamentals Due to renewed trade tensions, the S&P 500 corrected by 6.0% and the Stoxx Europe 600 by 5.8% from the late July peak to the 5 August low. Because the pullback was clustered around just a few days, its intensity was reminiscent of the worst market days of past major crises. Safe haven assets benefitted significantly, with gold gaining 7.4% from the late July equity market peak to the 5 August...