Dirk Niepelt

In the NZZ, Christian Speicher summarizes expected consequences of climate change for Switzerland by 2050–2060. Mean temperatures exceed the 1980–2009 average by 1.6–2.9 degrees Celsius. The temperature increase is more pronounced in Summer than in Winter. But ski resorts below 2000m are no longer competitive. Less precipitation in Summer, maybe more in Winter. More extreme weather events. Increased need for water storage and conservation.

In the FT, Paul McClean reports that according to FT estimates and as a consequence of Brexit, the UK will have to negotiate more than 700 treaties with third countries. More than 160 countries need to be dealt with; Switzerland, the US and Norway stand out. Some negotiations have to be concluded very soon: … the EU-US Open Skies accord for airlines, were agreed when the forces of liberalisation were at their peak. The political mood has hardened considerably since then. … The timing is...

Paul Krugman argues that the bilateral trade position is irrelevant. And he summarizes potential explanations: … one theory of imbalances is macroeconomic: countries that save more than they invest will run surpluses, countries that invest more than they save will run deficits. … But … [t]he bilateral imbalance is a lot bigger … The other story … is about “triangular trade.” Here’s my version: think of a world containing three countries, Spendthriftia, Austeria, and Petrostan. The first...

The Economist reports about new strategies to evade taxes. One is based on an occupational retirement scheme (ORS) in Hong Kong: A German or Australian with money to hide can set up a Hong Kong shell company, appoint himself as its director, with a local employment contract, and sign up with a trust company that provides an ORS. He can throw in cash, property or other assets, oversee the account himself, retire as soon or as far in the future as he likes, and then take out as much or as...

In the FT, Dan McCrum, Thomas Hale and Kate Allen compare bond syndications and auctions.

In a Hoover Institution Essay, Joshua Rauh describes the extent to which US states and communities under fund public sector pensions. Even under states’ own disclosures and optimistic assumptions about future investment returns, assets in the pension systems will be insufficient to pay for the pensions of current public employees and retirees. Taxpayer resources will eventually have to make up the difference. Despite the implementation of new Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB)...

On MIT News, Larry Hardesty offers a brief history of neural networks and “deep learning” (learning by networks with many layers).

The Economist reports about new accounting standards for insurers. IFRS 17, to come into force in 2021 (in most countries but not in the US), requires insurers to use current discount rates to value cash flows. This corresponds with EU practice. America and parts of Asia allow the use of historical discount rates.

On the FT Alphaville blog, Izabella Kaminska reports about delays, fees, and doubts.

… according to PredictWise: Strongly rising, at 25%+. Tyler Cowen: Ditto, 25%.