The Only Move for the Fed is Talking Down the Dollar
The Fed has no more maneuvers other than to jawbone the dollar lower. Because for a variety of reasons a strong dollar, in the current market environment, is akin to tighter monetary policy.

The Eccles Building

US dollar index over the past 2 years
And right now, in the wake of Brexit, tighter monetary policy is clearly not an option. Plus, a stronger dollar (by virtue of the “peg”) strengthens the Chinese Yuan and the Saudi Riyal… something neither country will tolerate.

US dollar index over the past two years – click to enlarge.

Monthly chart of USD-SAR
since the Riyal is pegged, this is essentially a straight line…but not always. Palpitations usually set in when a crisis is underway and oil prices are coming under pressure.
The dollar’s whip-saw in 2016 has The Fed’s fingerprints all over it. The sequence is:  Flawed forward guidance of 4 rate hikes (US dollar ramp), followed by a slowing US economy (US dollar softens)… and now the Brexit/ global economic fears (US dollar rallies in “flight to quality”).

The Messenger and the Message
Of course, the Fed will try to manage the dollar lower – with both an absolute intent and, naturally, uncertain outcome. Their serial monetary policy impotence will certainly never be acknowledged.

Home of the Anti-Bubble
It seems like almost everybody has an opinion about Twitter (TWTR) – both the company and the stock. As for the company it seems that their “window of opportunity” to massively succeed has essentially closed as user growth and revenue have both slowed, quite dramatically, over the past 18 months. Plus management turnover is clicking at a rapid pace. Company executives typically do not leave if the firm’s future seems bright.
Even the ubiquitous Co-Founder/CEO, Jack Dorsey, has halfway bailed out of his San Francisco based money burner for another cash shredding unicorn – Square – separated by less than one mile. How convenient for him to toggle between both executive offices.

Jack Dorsey, the ubiquitous Photo credit: John Sebastian Russo

 
The only real obstacles on his Market Street walking route are a polarized mix of vagrants (cell phone in one hand + bitcoin donation cup in the other hand´) and long-bearded/well tailored hipsters (cell phone in one hand + Blue Bottle coffee cup in the other hand).
Unfortunately, judging by the price chart below, many Twitter shareholders are as dour as the collectively sad futures of those homeless chaps Dorsey regularly dodges.

TWTR, weekly – no joy for shareholders as what Sornette calls an “anti-bubble” plays out  with rather merciless persistence – click to enlarge.

Not Just Wrong, but Monumentally Wrong
Massive flaws at SUNE (Sun Edison) + VRX (Valeant) were somehow missed by both of these high profile/ well resourced hedge funds.

Photo credit: Brendan McDermid, Eduardo Munoz / Reuters

David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) and Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) – both fund managers had a terrible year 2015 (down about 20% each), but while Mr. Einhorn has changed his way and righted his ship so far in 2016, Mr. Ackman stubbornly stuck (and at one point even doubled down) on his biggest losing bet. As of early March, the performance spread between the two managers in 2016 had widened to 2,400 basis points in favor of Mr. Einhorn.

Much has been written about the very poor Q1 ’16 industry-wide hedge fund performance. Hedge funds are clearly under attack, primarily because of their fee structures. But it ought to be noted that the performance fees (20%) tied to their high water marks have not been triggered for some time in many cases.
Management fees (in most cases) are still being applied though. It seems the legacy hedge fund compensation structure of 2 & 20 will soon enough be replaced by 2 or 20. For further insight into this issue I encourage all to read my post from 12.08.15 .