Tag Archives: trade

A Bloomberg article about the weekend G7 meeting says, “multilateralism is dead.”  An op-ed in the Financial Times suggests that the most important political alliance may be “rejuvenated” at the G7 meeting.  The truth is likely found somewhere in between.  Economic nationalism, personalities of (some) of the leaders are not conducive to deepening or broadening cooperation among the leading market economies.  At the same time, the G7 is an expression of...

The capital markets are in their own doom loop. Poor data from  Germany and China, coupled with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute and rising tensions in Hong Kong spur concerns about the risks of a global recession. Interest rates are driven lower, and curves flatten or go inverted, spurring more concern about the outlook. The problem is that it is not clear how this vicious cycle ends. To be sure, the end is conceivable but it seems beyond which the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.39% to 1.0862 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December. This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets. However, as the news...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.23% to 1.0928 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The escalation of the economic conflict between the world’s two largest economies is dominating the capital markets. The US cited China as a currency manipulator after the North American markets closed, ensuring the troubled start to...

The die is cast. To defend the uneven expansion and ward off disinflationary forces, monetary authorities will provide more accommodation. The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in more than a decade and stopped unwinding its balance sheet two months earlier than it previously indicated (worth $100 bln of additional buying of Treasuries and Agencies). Following the end of the tariff truce, and after the July...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.40% to 1.0929 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The market was finding its sea legs after being hit with wave and counter-wave following the FOMC decision, and more importantly, Powell’s attempt to give insight into the Fed’s thinking. Trump’s tweet than signaled an end to the tariff...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.22% at 1.1095 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After slapping punitive tariffs on structural from China and Mexico last week, US President Trump threatened to end the tariff truce with China because it is not stepped up its purchases of US agriculture products. Trump said the tariff...

In an interview with the NZZ, Gabriel Felbermayr explains where the European Union adds value, and where it doesn’t. The key points: Free trade for goods and services as well as capital and labor mobility are partial substitutes. Partial, because factor mobility fosters trade and technology transfer. Estimates suggest that free trade and capital mobility generate more than 80% of the welfare gains from European integration. Even labor mobility does not require admission into welfare...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% at 1.1126 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dovish response to news that Lagarde was nominated to replace Draghi was extended by the dismal German factory order report that has pushed the euro to new two-week lows and kept bond yields near record lows. The focus ahead of the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.52% at 1.1155 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A new tariff truce between the US and China, coupled with the North Korean diplomacy and Russia-Saudi tentative agreement boosted investor confidence and sharp equity rallies. Japanese and Chinese equities rallied 2-3%. Most markets...