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According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the institution that dates the peaks and troughs of the business cycles: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP [gross domestic product], real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the...

On Saturday at the Jackson Hole symposium there will be speakers from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Korea. We may get some clues on what’s coming up from the ECB: Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole is the second-most important Saturday’s item of interest (1625 GMT)   [embedded content] Tags:...

Overview: Ahead of the much-anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell, the Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 70% chance of a 75 bp hike next month.  The US 10-year yield is up nearly five basis points today to 3.07% and the two-year yield is firm at 3.38%.  Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher, with China the main exception among the large markets, after US equities rallied yesterday.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off about 0.3% to bring this week’s...

Under construction: the new Novartis Pavilion in Basel. Keystone / Georgios Kefalas Of the 1,400 job cuts announced by the pharma giant in Switzerland, up to half of them will involve staff in leadership positions, the company said on Monday. For these executive roles, the consultation process has been finalised, and the first individuals concerned will be informed “in the coming weeks”, said the head of Novartis Switzerland Matthias Leuenberger at a media event in...

If “markets” controlled by the rich are allowed to distribute essentials, the result will be civil disorder and the overthrow of regimes. What’s worse than inflation? Depression + Inflation. And that’s where we’re heading. As I explained yesterday in The Fed Can’t Stop Supply-Side Inflation, central banks are trying to reduce inflation by crushing demand. This works in eras of abundance, but not in eras of scarcity in which supply constraints drive inflation. If the...

25.08.2022 – In 2020, the Swiss economy had almost 617 000 businesses and just under 5.3 million jobs. After uninterrupted growth since the start of the statistical series in 2011, the number of businesses and jobs has declined for the first time. Compared with 2019, around 900 fewer units and 33 000 fewer workplaces were recorded, a decline of 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. Food and beverage service activities and the accommodation sector were particularly affected,...

Schon beim Freedom Convoy in Kanada wurden Inhalte von Crypto-Wallets staatlich beschlagnahmt. Auf diversen Plattformen wurden Wallets blockiert und die darin befindlichen Cryptocoins konfisziert, sofern diese in Verbindung mit den regierungskritischen Protesten standen. In der Ukraine wird nun dieselbe Strategie verfolgt. Bitcoin News: Ukraine beschlagnahmt Cryptocoin Wallets mit Verbindungen zu RusslandIn der Ukraine sind es offenbar die Crypto-Plattformen selbst,...

Overview: It seems that many market participants had the same thing in mind, cut dollar longs before the Jackson Hole gathering. The Antipodeans lead the majors move, encouraged perhaps by China’s new economic measures, with around a 1% gain. The euro and sterling are up about 0.35% and are the laggards. Emerging market currencies are higher as well, with the notable exception of India and Turkey, which are nursing small losses. Equities are having a good day. All...

Retail and hospitality infrastructure helped drive revenues at Zurich airport. © Keystone / Christian Beutler Switzerland’s busiest airport has posted a CHF55 million ($57 million) net profit for the first six months of the year as post-pandemic air travel picks up. By comparison, Zurich airport made a CHF45 million loss in the corresponding period of 2021, but the newly reported profits still fall well short of the CHF143 million booked in the first six months of...

Hydropower accounts for around 60% of total Swiss electricity production. Keystone / Gian Ehrenzeller The Swiss Federal Electricity Commission (Elcom) has laid out plans to hold back hydropower reserves to help compensate for anticipated energy shortages this winter. Elcom wants hydropower operators to hold back up to 666 gigawatt hours of electricity that would normally be sold on the open market. That’s enough to power 150,000 households for a year. The reserves...