Tag Archives: macro

The US reports September CPI on October 12 and the first decline in three months in the year-over-year rate is expected. However, the price action itself may overshadow not only the CPI but other high-frequency data in the week ahead. US grew more than twice the number of jobs in September as economists expected. US interest rates and the dollar jumped initially, and stocks were dumped. And then they reversed. Many narratives will be spun to explain the price...

There are four large macro forces shape the investment and business climate here at the start of the last quarter of the year. First, the US economic outperformance has been stark. This has helped underpin US rates and bolsters the dollar. The divergence is likely to narrow in coming months as US growth slows rather than stronger growth prospects in other high-income countries. Second, Beijing has taken numerous measures, which although stopping well shy of the...

The most important outcome of the last week's flurry of central bank meetings was the median forecast of Fed officials for 50 bp less in cuts next year than it had anticipated in June as it revised up its growth forecasts for this year and next. The prospect for higher rates for pushed equities lower. Sterling and the Swiss franc were the weakest currencies in the G10 last week, falling by a little more than 1.1%. Both central banks did not hike rates to the...

The diverging economic performance between the US and Europe, Japan, and China on the other hand is stark. Yet, a greater divergence may be between widespread discussion of de-dollarization and its incredible strength in the foreign exchange market. The eight-week rally in the Dollar Index is the longest in nine years. According to SWIFT, which is not comprehensive but remains by far the largest platform, the dollar's role in international payments (46% in July) is...

There is a sense of new divergence. Most economists, including the staff at the Federal Reserve, no longer think the US is recession-bound. Unprecedented in modern times, inflation has fallen sharply, and unemployment has not risen, and the economy appears to be enjoying its third consecutive quarter, and the fourth in the past five, above what the Federal Reserve regards as the non-inflationary pace (1.8%). At the same time, and despite being among the fastest...

The US and China report July CPI figures in the coming days and they are likely moving in opposite directions. Headline US CPI is likely to rise for the first time since peaking in June 2022. China's CPI has been slowing and is likely to go negative on a year-over-year basis. It finished last year at 1.8% and in June was unchanged year-over-year. The divergence of policy is what is driving force of the exchange rate, and the    question is not really so much why the...

After experiencing one of its worst weeks of the year, the US dollar is stretched from a technical point of view while the short-term interest rate adjustment has gone as far as it can without resurrecting ideas of a Fed rate cut this year. Given the lighter economic calendar in the coming days, we suspect that the greenback may consolidate ahead of the FOMC meeting that concludes on July 26. The derivatives market shows that a quarter-point hike is seen as a...

The week ahead is less eventful than the week that just passed, which saw the anticipated hike by the ECB and the small cut by the PBOC. The Fed delivered the widely tipped hawkish hold and the US CPI continued to decelerate. The dollar fell against the G10 currencies last week but the yen.  Sterling, and the Canadian dollar rose to new highs for the year,  Momentum indicators are stretched.  This coupled with risk-reward considerations suggest that the dollar could...

Of the three G3 central banks that meet in the days ahead, the market is the most confident of a rate hike by the European Central Bank. The market sees a hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve. However, the idea of a skip, a topic which even Fed officials have broached, would seem to pre-commit to another hike, and this is not typically the central bank's modus operandi. Moreover, it may be difficult for the Fed to resume hikes in July if inflation falls as we...

True to the historic pattern, the US debt ceiling was used by the party not in control of the executive branch to exact spending concessions. Despite the extreme partisanship, the brinkmanship tactics, and fears that this time would be different, there was no default. As Bismarck once quipped, "Laws are like sausages and it is best not seen them being made." Still, as a consequence, the rebuilding of the Treasury's account and bill issuance is seen tightening...