Tag Archives: macro

When everything was said and done last week, the market did not change its mind. There was still a better than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve delivers its first rate cut in June. Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the central bank was not far from the level of confidence needed to cut rates. The market understands "not far" to mean three months. The US reported a 275k gain in February's nonfarm payrolls. Taking the past two month's downward revisions into...

Rarely are officials able to achieve the proverbial economic soft-landing when higher interest rates help cool price pressures without triggering a significant rise in unemployment or a contraction. Yet, without declaring victory, the Federal Reserve's confidence that this will be achieved has risen. Still, its increased confidence is unlikely to lead to a rate cut this month. To appreciate where things stand begins with recognizing that what has characterized the...

The US dollar and interest rates appear to be at an inflection point. Much of the past several weeks have been about correcting the overshoot that took place in  Q4 23, when the derivatives markets were pricing in nearly seven quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. US two- and 10-year interest rates set new three-month highs last week. With the help of economic data and comments by Fed officials, the market, as it did a few times last year, has...

The US January CPI and PPI came in stronger than expected and this extended the recovery in US interest rates. In turn that helped underpin the dollar. We do not think the data itself changes the Fed’s stance. At least seven Fed officials speaking in the coming days will test this hypothesis. There are still several key reports before the data dependent FOMC meets again in about four weeks. Owing to the different weights and methodology, the PCE deflator, which the...

The markets are still correcting from the overshoot on rates and the dollar that took place in late 2023. The first Fed rate cut has been pushed out of March and odds of a May move have been pared to the lowest since last November. The extent of this year's cuts has been chopped to about 4.5 quarter-point move (~112 bp) from more than six a month ago. The market has reduced the extent of ECB cuts to about 114 bp (from 160 bp at the end of January and 190 in late...

Given the world's turmoil, including the escalation, and broadening of the conflict in the Middle East and China's continued aerial harassment of Taiwan ahead of the election, the capital and commodity markets have remained firm. February WTI fell about 1.7% last week and March Brent slipped around 0.65%. Shipping costs are rising as the Rea Sea is avoided and supply chain disruptions are threatened. Still the MSCI index of developed equity market rose by nearly...

The terribly mixed US jobs report spurred dramatic intraday swings in exchange and US interest rates. But at the close, the dollar was little changed against most major currencies, and expectations for Fed policy was nearly unchanged. The futures market has about a 70% chance of a cut at the March meeting. The Dollar Index was off by less than 0.1%. Job growth held up better than expected in December, the unemployment rate held steady, and average wages rose...

The only thing that can be said with high confidence about the year ahead is that it will be different from 2023. Three broad forces will shape the business and investment climate in the year ahead.First, the post-Covid tightening cycle in the high-income countries, leaving aside Japan, has ended. The question is when and how fast rate cuts will be delivered. Moderating price pressures and weaker growth impulses have seen the pendulum of market sentiment swing...

As the year winds down, the global economy appears to be entering a new phase. While North American and European central bankers swear that they are prepared to respond to new threats to price stability, the markets demur. Indicative pricing in the derivatives markets reflects the general conclusion that the central banks have most likely completed the post-Covid monetary tightening cycle. Central bankers are pushing against a premature easing of financial...

The dollar fell against all the G10 currencies last week. The dollar-bloc currencies, sterling, and the Scandis  led the move, appreciating by about 0.55%-1.40% against the US dollar.  The dollar bloc and sterling recorded new highs for the month ahead of the weekend. Against the others, the dollar spent most of last week consolidating after its recent losses were extended at the start of the week. Still, our review of the technical condition warns that the US...