Tag Archives: Growth forecast

Low oil prices are good news for disposable income. But they also reflect the risk of oversupply in a world where growth indicators continue to point down. Events since Trump first threatened increased tariffs in 2017 provide a textbook example of how tariffs are transmitted through the global economy. First, the uncertainty they create hurts sentiment. Then, as uncertainty lasts, investments are postponed. Indeed, we are currently seeing a progressive decline in...

Low oil prices are good news for disposable income. But they also reflect the risk of oversupply in a world where growth indicators continue to point down.Events since Trump first threatened increased tariffs in 2017 provide a textbook example of how tariffs are transmitted through the global economy. First, the uncertainty they create hurts sentiment. Then, as uncertainty lasts, investments are postponed. Indeed, we are currently seeing a progressive decline in new orders, industrial...

Signs of a potential global recession are appearing, such as a fall in fixed investment and industrial production and a build-up in unwanted inventories. We are revising down our world growth forecast. The effects of a negative shock dating back to early 2018 are still being propagated throughout the world economy. Sentiment was the first to be hit, but there have been increasing signs of a marked slowdown in hard data...

Signs of a potential global recession are appearing, such as a fall in fixed investment and industrial production and a build-up in unwanted inventories. We are revising down our world growth forecast.The effects of a negative shock dating back to early 2018 are still being propagated throughout the world economy. Sentiment was the first to be hit, but there have been increasing signs of a marked slowdown in hard data as well. In particular, fixed investment in advanced economies plunged...