German real GDP shrank in the second half of the year, reinforcing our view of a significant ECB action in September.The German economy shrank by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q2. Today’s report contained some positives news, notably regarding the resilience of domestic demand.Nevertheless, the ongoing trade disputes between China and the US, China weakness, the threat of auto tariffs and the threat of a no-deal Brexit to supply chains, in addition to the auto sector’s own issues are...
Read More »Why You Should Care Germany More and More Looks Like 2009
What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else. This was the scenario increasingly considered over the second half of 2018 and the first few months of 2019; whether or not recession. Over the past...
Read More »Germany Struggles On
The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike. The aftermath of that crisis, particularly the...
Read More »FX Daily, June 24: Slow Start to Important Week
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% at 1.1099 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 this coming weekend and heightened tensions in the Gulf, with the US set to impose new sanctions on Iran’s crippled economy are keeping investors on edge. News the opposition won the re-do of the...
Read More »FX Daily, June 13: Financial Statecraft or Whack-a-Mole
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% at 1.1199 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After roiling the markets by threatening escalating tariffs on Mexico, US President Trump has threatened China that if Xi does not meet him and return to the positions that the US claims it had previously, he will through on imposing...
Read More »FX Daily, May 20: Politics Overshadows Economics Today, but Japan’s Economy Unexpectedly Expanded in Q1
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11% at 1.1261 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Encouraged by the election results, investors bid up Indian and Australian currencies and equities. Japan offered a pleasant surprise by reporting the world’s third-largest economy expanded in Q1. Most other equity markets in Asia...
Read More »What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories
It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who contributed much to the tumult, having idiotically raised rates (twice) during 2011 even as warning signs of...
Read More »Hospital Care in Switzerland and Germany
In the NZZ, Thomas Hürlimann reviews his experience as a patient in Swiss and German hospitals. Top: Stans, Prof. Dr. Bachmann. Flop: Baar, Berlin Friedrichshain.
Read More »Hospital Care in Switzerland and Germany
In the NZZ, Thomas Hürlimann reviews his experience as a patient in Swiss and German hospitals. Top: Stans, Prof. Dr. Bachmann. Flop: Baar, Berlin Friedrichshain.
Read More »External Demand, Global Means Global
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark money rate for the second straight meeting. Reducing its repo rate by 25 bps, down to 6%, the central bank once gripped by political turmoil has certainly shifted gears. Former Governor Urjit Patel was essentially removed (he resigned) in December after feuding with the federal government over his perceived hawkish stance. Shaktikanta Das, a career bureaucrat with...
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