Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...
Read More »Weekly Speculative Positions: Short CHF Close to Records of 2015
Speculators appeared mostly interested in reducing exposure in the run-up to the US jobs data and the Italian referendum. They liquidated gross longs in the currency futures market and covered shorts. Of the eight currencies we track there were two exceptions, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K...
Read More »Weekly Speculative Positions: Short CHF Close to Records of 2015
Speculators appeared mostly interested in reducing exposure in the run-up to the US jobs data and the Italian referendum. They liquidated gross longs in the currency futures market and covered shorts. Of the eight currencies we track there were two exceptions, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K...
Read More »Weekly Speculative Positions: Short CHF Close to Records of 2015
Speculators appeared mostly interested in reducing exposure in the run-up to the US jobs data and the Italian referendum. They liquidated gross longs in the currency futures market and covered shorts. Of the eight currencies we track there were two exceptions, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K...
Read More »Weekly Speculative Positions: Short CHF Are Increasing
In the CFTC reporting week ending November 28, speculators added 12.1k contracts to their gross short position, lifting it to 72.4k contracts. Speculators added a little less than one thousand contracts to the gross longs, which then stood at 72.1k contracts. Since peaking in early October near 102k contracts, 30k gross long contracts have been liquidated. Over the same period, almost 40k contracts have been added...
Read More »Weekly Speculative Positions: Dramatic Spot Currency Moves not Reflected
The net speculative position of the Swiss Franc did not change a lot. It fell from -23K contracts to -22k against the US Dollar. Speculators reduced their net euro and Sterling shorts. But they reduced their long yen position. What is most noticeable about the CFTC Commitment of Traders report for the reporting week ending November 15 is what is not there: Activity. With the Australian dollar being the sole...
Read More »THIS Time A Swiss Franc Hedge Makes More Sense
Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Money markets and the Swiss franc have diverged despite a presumed increase in event risk from the U.S. Presidential election. Moreover, shorts against the Swiss franc have risen. This surprising divergence opens up a presumed opportunity use the franc as...
Read More »Weekly Speculative Positions: Rising Net Short Euro and CHF, but Stronger Euro and CHF
The weekly speculative position shows increasing short positions on the euro and on the Swiss Franc. On the other side, both currencies have appreciated, what they should not do if net short positions increase. Therefore there is a different phenomenon. Real money, .e.g in the form of cash, bonds, stocks or real estate that is invested in the euro area or in Switzerland. For Switzerland, we will see this in the...
Read More »Weekly Speculative Positions: Net Short CHF Position is Increasing
The net short Swiss Franc position against the dollar has risen to levels seen before the breakdown of the EUR/CHF floor. Short CHF has increased from short 9.4 K contracts to 16.4 K contracts. Before the end of the peg, in December 2014, speculators were short CHF by 20-25 K contracts. This big short position got repeated only once at the end of 2015, when the Fed was supposed to hike rates, but finally did not....
Read More »Swiss Franc Net Shorts Getting Reduced
Swiss Franc Last week SNB Q3 window cleaning that led to a big CHF net short position. This week this changed again. Both longs and shorts on CHF increased, but the net short position fell. During the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders week ending October 4, speculators took on risk. Of the sixteen gross currency positions we track, speculators added to their exposure in all but five. Bulls and bears saw...
Read More »