Tag Archives: Australia

Overview: The surging Covid cases in China and the protests in several cities seemed to set the tone for today’s session. Equities are lower. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea were marked down the most. Of the large bourses, only India escaped unscathed. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off more than 0.8% and US futures are poised to gap lower. Bond markets are quieter. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off a little more than one basis point to around 3.66%. European...

Two high-frequency economic reports stand out in the week ahead:  The US November employment report and the preliminary eurozone CPI. The Federal Reserve has deftly distanced itself from any one employment report. As a result, it would take a significant miss of the median forecast (Bloomberg survey) to alter market expectations for a 50 bp hike when the FOMC meeting concludes on December 14.Economists are looking for around a 200k increase in US non-farm payrolls...

Overview: The capital markets are quiet today with Japan on holiday and the US on holiday tomorrow. Asia Pacific equities were mostly firmer after yesterday’s rally on Wall Street. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is about 0.25% higher and at its best level in three months. US futures are steady to slightly higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed. The dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, with Scandis leading the way. Sweden is expected to raise rates...

The week ahead has a relatively light economic schedule, punctuated by the US Thanksgiving Day holiday on November 24. Nevertheless, the data highlights include the preliminary November PMIs, Tokyo's November CPI, and the FOMC minutes from this month's meeting. The data is not the driver now; psychology is. The precise print, for example, of the eurozone and the UK's preliminary PMI will likely be of little consequence. The composite has fallen for six consecutive...

Overview: Animal spirits are retreating today. Asia Pacific and European equities are lower, and US futures are narrowly mixed. US 2- and 10-year yields are edging higher, while European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly softer.  Italy and the UK are notable exceptions. Gilt yields are firming ahead of the budget statement. The dollar is trading higher against the G10 currencies. It still appears to be in a consolidative mode, but we continue to see risk of a more...

Policymakers have often said that exchange rates should reflect fundamentals. What does that really mean? Can they do anything but that? It begs the question of which fundamental factors they should reflect. Therein lies the rub. We are still struck by the latest Bank for International Settlements figures. Their survey found that the average daily turnover in the foreign exchange market was $7.5 trillion a day. World trade last year was about $22.5 trillion. The...

Overview: The dollar has come back from the weekend bid. After the ECB and BOJ meetings last week, the focus has shifted back to the US where the FOMC meeting concludes in the middle of the week and the October employment report is out ahead of the weekend. Sterling and the yen are the weakest performers among the G10 currencies and are off 0.45%-0.50%. The Antipodeans are performing best and are straddling little changed levels. Emerging market currencies are lower,...

Overview: The US dollar is having one of toughest days of the year. It has been sold across the board and taken out key levels like parity in the euro, $1.15 in sterling, and CAD1.36. The Chinese yuan surged over 1%. Chinese officials promised healthy bond and stock markets. There is some talk that the PBOC may have intervened directly in the forex market. Large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rallied and the CSI 300 rose by 0.8%, its first gain of the week. After...

Overview:  Japanese efforts to curb the weakness of the yen provided drama today. What many suspect was intervention before the weekend was wearing off and officials may have sold dollars again today in front of JPY150. Despite initial success, the dollar is back near JPY149.50 as the North American session is about to begin. The end of the Chinese Congress has seen the yuan weaken to new lows. While the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose, China and Hong...

Overview: China and Japan continue to struggle to stabilize their currencies, while global interest rates rise. The offshore yuan has fallen to new lows but in late dealings the onshore and offshore yuan have recovered. The dollar also traded above JPY150 for the first time since 1990 and the market knows it is on thin ice as with the threat of official intervention. A risk-off mood permeates. Equity markets have retreated in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. US...