Tag Archives: Australia

Overview: The focus is squarely on the US employment report. At the risk of oversimplifying, given the position adjustment in the past 48 hours, a solid report can see the greenback recover, while a disappointing report will likely see it deepen the correction of the rally that began with the February jobs report. The dollar recovered in the North American afternoon yesterday and many observers attributed it to the bevy of Fed comments. Yet, the interest rate market...

Overview: The dollar neared JPY152, setting a new 34-year high. This appeared to spur a senior official meeting in Tokyo, ostensibly to talk about the response. Previously, we suggested that Friday, when most markets outside of Asia will be closed, could provide an interesting opportunity for intervention. The implicit threat was enough to take the dollar to JPY151.10 in the European morning. Most of the G10 currencies are softer against the dollar but the yen. A...

Overview: Amid a light news stream, the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near JPY150.90. Emerging market currencies are mostly...

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly after being sold yesterday. It is still soft against the dollar bloc and the Swiss franc but is firmer against the other G10 currencies. Narrow ranges have dominated. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with central European currencies and the Taiwan dollar trading softer. The offshore Chinese yuan is firmer for the sixth consecutive session. The highlights of today's North American session features minutes from last month's...

Overview: There has been a string of disappointing economic news today. Japan’s economy surprisingly contracted in Q4 23 and the Q3 contraction was a little deeper than initially estimates. Australia’s jobs growth was weaker than expected and unemployment rose to 4.1%, matching the highest since November 2021. The UK’s economy contracted more than expected in Q4 23, its second consecutive quarter without growth. That seems like poor news ahead of today’s two...

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and this may have helped...

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The Mexican peso and...

Overview: Stocks and bonds are trading higher, and the dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the December US CPI report. Most of the large bourses in Asia Pacific advanced, led by Japan to new 30-year-plus highs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng snapped seven-day slide to post its first gain of 2024. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.33%, to recoup most of its losses in the past two sessions. US index futures enjoy a modest upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields in Europe are off...

Overview: The broad consolidation in the dollar after the gyrations at the end of last week continues, and within it the greenback is a bit softer today. Among the G10 currencies, only the yen is failing to post gains. Most emerging market currencies, led by central Europe, are also firmer today. A notable exception is a handful of Asian currencies, include the South Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, and the Philippine peso. The market's focus is on tomorrow's US CPI....

Overview: The dollar continues to consolidate broadly after the dramatic price swings at the end of last week. For the most part, the greenback remains inside yesterday's ranges, which were inside last Friday's. The G10 currencies are a little heavier today, except the Japanese yen and Norwegian krone, which are posting small gains. Indeed, the greenback is near session highs against most of the major currencies as we go to print. Emerging market currencies are more...