Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

Overview: The start of the new week has not broken the bearish drive lower in equities. Several Asia Pacific centers were closed, including Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. China’s markets re-opened, and the new US sanctions coupled with the disappointing Caixin service and composite PMI took its toll. The CSI 300 was off 2.2% and the Hang Seng dropped nearly 3%. After falling 1.2% at the end of last week, Europe’s Stoxx 600 gapped lower today and is off almost...

We suggested that the US jobs data and the CPI would be a 1-2 punch that would strengthen the greenback after it pulled back from extremes seen in late September. The US employment data were sufficiently strong, and the unemployment rate fell back to cyclical lows (3.5%), which prodded the market to again toy with the idea that the Fed funds terminal rate may be 4.75% rather than 4.50% and in Q2 next year rather than Q1. The dollar rose against most G10 currencies...

In Volcker’s days, when he used money supply to justify tightening monetary policy despite high unemployment, the money supply was released while markets were open, and it was The report. Later, by the mid-1980s, leading up to the Plaza Agreement, the deterioration of the US monthly trade balance was critical. It became The report. For several years now, the monthly jobs report superseded it. It is the first hard data for a new month and often sets the tone for the...

Overview: Asia Pacific bourses followed yesterday’s US loss, but after opening lower Europe’s Stoxx 600 has steadied. US futures are narrowly mixed ahead of the US jobs report. Benchmark 10-year yields are higher across the board. The US 10-year Treasury yield is near 3.84%, slightly higher on the day. It is up a single basis point on the week. European yields are 3-5 bp higher. The dollar is softer against the G10 currencies, but as we note below, the intraday...

Overview:  The markets seem to lack conviction today. Stocks in the Asian Pacific region advanced. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving up its earlier advance, and US futures are heavier. Australian and New Zealand bonds played catch-up after the rise in the US and Europe yesterday. Their benchmark yield rose 14 bp and 10 bp, respectively. The US 10-year Treasury yield is firm near 3.77%, while European bonds are narrowly mixed, though Gilts are under pressure. The 10-year...

Overview: Hopes that the global tightening cycle is entering its last phase supplied the fodder for a continued dramatic rally in equities and bonds. The euro traded at par for the first time in two weeks, while sterling reached almost $1.1490, its highest since September 15. The US 10-year yield has fallen by 45 bp in the past five sessions. Yet, the scar tissue from the last bear market rally is still fresh and US equity futures are lower after the S&P 500 had...

Swiss National Bank monetary policymaker Andrea Maechler is speaking at 1130 GMT, at an event titled: After the interest rate change: high inflation, rising interest. How will it affect the Swiss economy? In September: SNB raises policy rate by 75 bps to 0.50%, as expected EUR/CHF has been recovering from its recent lows: . [embedded content]...

Overview: The big bond and stock market seen yesterday has continued today. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s reversion to a quarter-point hike stokes hope that the aggressive tightening cycle more broadly is set to slow. The UN’s Conference on Trade and Development became the latest to warn that the synchronized tightening risks a global recession and a prolonged period of stagnation. The large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose 2.0%-3.75%.  Europe’s Stoxx...

Overview: The markets begin October with some trepidation.  Rumors continue to circulate about the health of a large European bank, cross currency swaps are elevated, suggest dollars are more difficult to access.  The S&P 500 settled on new lows for the year at the end of last week.  China and South Korea on closed for national holidays. Chinese market will not open until next week, and Hong Kong markets are closed tomorrow.  While the Nikkei advanced, the other...

The historic dollar rally accelerated in September. By some measures, it is as rich as it has been in the half-century since the end of Bretton Woods. Persistent price pressures, a robust labor market in many dimensions, and the Federal Reserve's latest forecasts warn that financial conditions will tighten into next year. However, we suspect that the market may have seen peak Fed hawkishness when it briefly priced in a terminal Fed funds rate of around 5.50% towards...