Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

There are three key scheduled events between now and the end of the year. In chronological order, this weekend G20 meeting is first. It will shape expectations for trade tensions between the US and China, with extensive secondary impact. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s meeting may help shape expectations for the price of oil, which has collapsed here in Q4 18. The ECB meets on December 13 with new staff forecasts (likely...

The investment climate will be shaped by three events next week. ECB President Draghi’s testimony before the European Parliament to kick-off the week. Fed Chairman Powell speaks to the NY Economic Club in the middle of the week. Presidents Trump and Xi are to meet at the G20 meeting to end the week in hopes of dialing back the escalating trade conflict. Also at the G20 summit, the NAFTA2.0 is expected to be signed, and...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.27% at 1.1311 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. Japanese and Indian markets were closed for holidays and a weaker than expected flash EMU PMI helped keep the euro pinned near this week’s lows. Although the EU seemed...

I was part of the “Trading Block” on CNBC earlier today. The sharp fall in stocks and oil would have led many, like Joe, to anticipate dollar weakness. Instead, the dollar rallied. Perhaps, I suggested, the dollar was acting like a safe haven. Bill yields are high enough to make cash a reasonable alternative to park one’s savings. Even though the US economy is slowing from the fiscal goose of more than 4% in Q2 and more...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.26% at 1.134 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Yesterday’s frenzy has burnt itself out for the moment. Equities began recovering in Asia after early losses. China, including Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand closed higher and European markets are recouping some of yesterday’s...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.50% at 1.132 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Yesterday’s 3% drop in the NASDAQ is setting the tone for today. The US stock market advance had been led by a narrow group of equities, and those have come under strong pressure amid slower consumer demand and stricter export control....

A distillation of the macro backdrop and important price considerations for selected currencies. US Dollar The market always has taken the Fed’s forecast for three rate hikes next year with a large dose of skepticism. The fed funds futures strip implies growing expectations that the Fed pauses after a hike in December and Q1 19. It is still unclear the direction of fiscal policy next year. It may be difficult for the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% at 1.1378 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: There is an uneasy calm in the global capital markets. Investors are digesting the weekend news, which includes the failure of APEC to issue a joint statement due to US-China tensions that we highlighted by dueling speeches by China...

Often, and apparently wrongly attributed to Mark Twain is the observation that it is not what we know that gets into trouble, but “what we know that just ain’t so.” Now though, investors suffer from a different problem. Several processes are in motion, and there is little confidence in their outcomes. Among these are Brexit, US-China trade, the trajectory of Fed policy, and the EC’s efforts to enforce the agreed-upon...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% at 1.1422 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It is the height of irony or tragedy that what was offered as a non-binding referendum on UK’s membership in the European Union to bring the country, or at least the Tory Party, together is the most destabilizing event since the UK...