Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

I was in graduate school, studying American foreign policy when I stumbled on Riccardo Parboni’s “The Dollar and Its Rivals.” This thin volume showed how the foreign exchange market was the arena in which capitalist rivalries were expressed. More than any single book, it set me on a more than 30-year path. The dramatic world of foreign exchange that Parboni depicted changed in a significant way in the mid-1990s. Led by...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% at 1.1339 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equity markets are unable to build on yesterday’s advance, but bonds and oil are extending gains. The dollar remains on the defensive and is off again all the major currencies. The lack of a joint statement over the weekend by the US...

To be sure, the Dollar Index is not the dollar. It is not even a trade-weighted measure of the dollar. Two of America’s largest trading partners, China and Mexico, are not represented. It is heavily weighted to the euro and currencies that move in its orbit, like the Swiss franc Swedish krona, and arguably the British pound. It is primarily a speculative vehicle. Very few investors or businesses have exposure that...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% at 1.1262 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The US and China kept their trade guns cocked at each other but offered the last opportunity for a negotiated settlement before escalation. What is billed as a 90-day freeze on tariff increases is really only 60 days beyond January 1...

Overview: There is an eerie calm in the capital markets today as the G20 meeting gets underway. There is much uncertainty, and the event calendar is chock full next week, with the Brexit debate getting underway in the UK Parliament, the CDU picks a new leader to replace Merkel, possible partial US government closure, Powell’s testimony before Congress, OPEC+ meeting, and US employment data. In Asia, the rise of Japanese...

I was on Fox Business today. Stuart Varney introduced me by asking me about my forecast for a Santa Claus rally–a year-end recovery in equities. From a technical perspective, I liked the fact that the S&P 500 successfully retested last month’s lows last week. I liked that the price action made last Friday’s price action into an island bottom, with a gap lower opening followed by Monday’s gap higher opening. In terms...

The softer than expected PCE deflator today plays into the dovish market mood. There may be little that can resist it until next Friday’s employment data, which should be another robust report with hourly earnings holding above 3% year-over-year. Last November, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. As this drops out of the year-over-year comparison, even a healthy bounce back from the 0.2% drop skewed by the hurricane...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.39% at 1.1337 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 29 Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The biggest US equity advance since Q1 has helped lift global markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth session, and nearly all the bourses in the region rallied with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. Almost all the sectors in Europe are...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% at 1.1262 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global capital markets are relatively calm as investors gird for drama. The Bank of England reports its assessment of the impact of Brexit and the stress tests a little before Fed Chair Powell speaks at midday in NY. The G20 meeting...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.12% at 1.1293 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets have taken the US latest tariff threats in stride. Most of the Asian equity markets advanced, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, and Australia. China and Hong Kong were exceptions with marginal losses....