SNB & CHF

Recall that the initial deaths and related costs are only the first-order effects; policy makers have to consider the second-order effects. Everyone who reckons that the lockdown is needless and more destructive than the pandemic that triggered it has to answer this question: then why did China lockdown half its economy? The reasoning of those who reckon the lockdown is needless can be summarized as follows: 1. The lockdown is based on poorly executed extrapolations...

Hospitals are battling to cope with coronavirus, and now they are under financial pressure as well. (Keystone) Cash-strapped Swiss hospitals, in the front line of the fight against coronavirus, are calling for financial help and an end to the ban on non-emergency procedures which has sapped revenue, reports the SonntagsZeitung newspaper. It quotes the director of Valais Hospital Hugo Burgener as saying “we need liquidity to pay salaries”, and writes that the...

Note sur la vidéo. Je vous poste cette vidéo spécialement pour la partie « revue de presse de quelques pontes de la virologie ». Le petit flottement au niveau des chiffres qui intervient au début n’a pas d’incidence sur le tour d’horizon de presse qui suit. Avertissement Ce texte n’est en aucun cas un appel à la désobéissance. Je vous invite à respecter les directives en vigueur dans votre région, tout comme je le fais moi-même. Les décisions des gouvernants...

EM may get a little support from a potential OPEC+ deal to limit oil.  Even if a deal is struck, the impact is likely to be fleeting as the global growth outlook remains terrible.  We remain negative on EM for the time being. AMERICAS Mexico reports March CPI Tuesday, which is expected to rise 3.37% y/y vs. 3.70% in February.  If so, inflation would move further towards the 3% target.  February IP will be reported Wednesday, which is expected to contract -1.2% y/y...

Despite the more optimistic claims of political pundits and Federal Reserve officials (Jerome Powell, specifically), things are far from being under control. Notwithstanding archetypal Austrian objections to “loose” monetary and fiscal policies on the grounds that they create production structures that ultimately deplete the pool of real savings, the operational failures of central banks cross-globally are largely nested in faulty axioms. Intellectually corrupt...

In a January 2020 Forbes Magazine article titled “Why Doing Good Is Good For Business” clearly left out critical information: who is the good or bad entrepreneur? According to the author, good entrepreneurs are doing good if their primary objective is not to make a profit. And bad entrepreneurs are doing bad if their primary objective is to make a profit. Basically, the author suggested that, to be good, a business should not pursue profit and, along with it,...

Seit nun mehr als einem Jahr mache ich regelmässig jede Woche Livestreams auf YouTube und Instagram. Für die ein oder anderen die diesen Blog länger verfolgen, ist das vielleicht etwas neues, weil ihr nur auf dem Blog unterwegs seid. . Livestream jeden Sonntag um 18:00 Uhr Aktuell habe ich zwei fixe Livestream Slots den Dividenden Dienstag um 18:00 Uhr zusammen mit Johannes Lortz. Und den Finanzrudel Sonntags Talk um 18:00 Uhr, jeweils beide auf meinem YouTube...

Exports to China dropped by half in February compared to the year before.  (© Keystone / Peter Klaunzer) The closure of shops caused by the spread of the coronavirus worldwide will cost Swiss watch firms dear, but exports are expected to rebound next year. “The Swiss watch industry will experience the largest decline in the past 50 years,” says a study published by private bank Vontobel on Wednesday. The projections are based on the assumption that stores will be...

[embedded content] Production has been stepped up at a company in eastern Switzerland that makes breathing machines, as health services struggle to help a growing number of coronavirus patients. Switzerland is one of the countries most affected by the virus, with more than 17,800 positive tests and more than 488 deaths. There are 82 intensive care units, which have a total of 950-1,000 beds; around 850 of these are equipped with respirators. The army has around 100...

Everyone with any position in today’s market will be able to say they lived through a real Bear Market. In the echo chamber of a Bull Market, there’s always a reason to get bullish: the consumer is spending, housing is strong, the Fed has our back, multiples are expanding, earnings are higher, stock buybacks will push valuations up, and so on, in an essentially endless parade of self-referential reasons to buy, buy, buy and ride the rocketship higher. The classic...