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SNB & CHF

FX Becalmed Ahead of the Weekend and Next Week’s Big Events

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly, with a slightly firmer today. There has been little follow-through selling after yesterday's setback. The Canadian dollar and sterling are faring best. The yen is a little softer after Tokyo's CPI came in lower as expected due to the government's energy subsidy. The election for the lower house of the Diet is held Sunday. Emerging market currencies are also mostly softer. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is poised...

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Lower Forward Returns Are A High Probability Event

I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morgan’s warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachs’ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade. While we have previously covered many of these article’s points, a comprehensive analysis is needed. Let’s start with the overall conclusion from JP Morgan’s article: “The investment bank’s models...

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Venezuelan Gangs, Affordable Housing, and Bad Policy

For years I have held up Venezuela in my economics classes as an example of bad government policy. Now it appears that the fallout from those policies has led to more crime being exported to cities across the US. Perhaps unsurprisingly, due to our proximity to the border, San Antonio is one of those cities.SAPD, along with “multiple state and federal agencies,” arrested several people in a northside apartment complex last weekend on suspicions of human trafficking,...

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Minsky Meltdowns and Modern Monetary Theory

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) posits that booms and busts can be explained by private versus public sectoral balances and the inherent instability of private financial markets. Stephanie Kelton frequently points to this graph of public and private surpluses and deficits:The red bars show the government’s budget as a percent of GDP. When the government spends more than it collects in taxes, it runs a deficit and sells debt. The government’s debt is sold domestically...

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USD/CHF hovers around 0.8650, upside likelihood appears possible as the US election looms

USD/CHF may appreciate further due to fading odds of bumper rate cuts by the Fed in 2024. The US Dollar receives support from market caution ahead of the US presidential election. The recent lower Swiss inflation rate increased the dovish sentiment surrounding the SNB. USD/CHF remains steady after registering losses in the previous session, maintaining its position above 0.8650 during Asian trading hours on Friday. This level is near its...

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Exchange is Not a Zero-Sum Game

Voluntary exchange is the core of all market economies. It is the lifeblood that propels innovation, societal welfare, and progress, creating intricate webs of interconnected transactions that heighten productivity. In pursuit of profits, businesses sell and improve their products to outperform competitors and increasingly capture market shares, spurring the development of novel ideas and solutions. As Michael Matulef puts it, “The constant push for improvement and...

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Dreading Republican Rule

[Editor’s note: This article originally ran on LewRockwell.com on July 28, 2000. Even before the Bush-Gore election wrapped up, Rockwell put his finger on what the Republicans had in store for America. For those who paid attention to Rockwell in this period, they were not shocked when the Bush administration came out in favor of the TSA, the Patriot Act, the NSA, the destruction of the Fourth Amendment, and more. 9/11 was an excuse to impose a police state on...

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The Pyramid Scheme of Home Insurance

I’ve always been skeptical of government-backed monopolies and coercive institutions. Insurance—particularly home insurance in hurricane-prone areas—has long been a prime example of such a scheme. In the past weeks of hurricanes, when the winds cause catastrophic destruction and the rain pours down flooding entire cities, the insurance industry’s true nature is laid bare—a pyramid scheme that preys on the vulnerable and enriches the few at the expense of the many.In...

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