SNB & CHF

Investors, fellow central bankers, and the media continue to try to make sense of last week's ECB surprise.    We had argued that given the market positioning, especially the dramatic accumulation of speculative short euro positions since the middle of October, that the market was prone to a correction.   The issue was really one of timing.  Was it going to materialize after the ECB meeting or after the US jobs data?  Or could it wait until after the FOMC meeting. This means that there...

The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and sterling after pushing higher yesterday.  The greenback is staging stronger upticks against the yen but is struggling to resurface above previous support in the JPY122.25 area.   Weak commodity prices and the loss of upside momentum has seen profit-taking in the Australian and New Zealand dollars.  The Canadian dollar remains heavy.  The US dollar has extended its gains to new multi-year highs.  It began the week near...

We have argued for a long time that 2016 will probably be a year of recession in the US and the Federal Reserve’s intent on raising rates will only help expedite it. We believe the current rate cycle will be short lived as the Federal Reserve is constrained by the heavy debt load weighing on the US economy. Or more specifically, the large share of unproductive and counterproductive debt that drain the US economy for resources.  Source: Federal Reserve – Financial Accounts of the United...

China was instructed by the IMF that as an operational requirement for joining the SDR that the gap between the onshore and offshore yuan (CNY and CNH respectively) needed to close.  This was important for central banks to hedge.  The opposite is taking place. That is what this Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg depicts. The yellow line is CNH.  The white line is CNY.  When PBOC facilitated a mini-devaluation in August, the spread widened out.  However, in September and October, as it...

Note; Recording contains some sound drops due to unresolved internet problems. Blake (@PipCzar) interviews Marc Chandler. Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the humanities. He holds master's degrees from Northern Illinois University and University...

Note; Recording contains some sound drops due to unresolved internet problems. Blake (@PipCzar) interviews Marc Chandler. Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the humanities. He holds master's degrees from Northern Illinois University and University...

There are two broad themes among the major currencies today.  The first is the pullback in the euro and yen after yesterday's run-up.  Position adjustments with the help of stop losses seemed to be the key consideration.  Both the euro and yen extended the recovery seen in the second half of last week.  Year-end considerations, both in terms of positioning and less liquidity, likely played a role as well.  The second broad theme is the relative strength of the Australian and New Zealand...

#Jordan negative inflation rate only temporary, caused by oil and price adjustments of imported goods, globally also low inflation #CHF #SNB — George Dorgan (@DorganG) December 10, 2015 #jordan Swiss sovereign money initiative means a complete change of financial system, #SNB needs longer evaluation #vollgeld #CHF — George Dorgan (@DorganG) December 10, 2015 #jordan Swiss deflation mostly caused by exchange rate and oil. No deflationary risks #chf #snb — George Dorgan (@DorganG)...

By 2045 the Swiss population will grow to over ten million. Pensioners are the fastest growing segment of society. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel: Website: http://www.swissinfo.ch Channel:...

The SNB’s expected December 10 rate cuts have already been priced in to the Swiss Franc. The central bank’s failure to do more than the market expected resulted in a stronger CHF. Growing uncertainty over the Fed’s 2016 monetary policy is a bullish factor for the franc. As they watched the euro strengthen following the ECB’s meeting, SNB representatives rubbed their hands in glee. However, by the start of the Asian FOREX session, the franc was already recovering from its wounds. Now, Bern...