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Jon Wolfenbarger



Articles by Jon Wolfenbarger

The Fed Has Busted Housing Bubble 2.0

28 days ago

As Austrian Business Cycle Theory explains, big-ticket capital expenditures are heaving influenced by interest rates, as we discussed here.Since housing is a big-ticket capital expenditure, demand for housing is strongly influenced by interest rates, which makes it an excellent leading indicator of the business cycle. The weakness we are seeing in housing now is one key reason I expect a major recession to likely start this year.The Fed Caused Housing Bubble 1.0The Federal Reserve intentionally created a housing bubble in the early 2000s that they busted in the Great Recession and Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009.In response to the Tech Bust and recession of the early 2000s, then Fed Chair Alan “The Maestro” Greenspan slashed the Federal Funds rate from nearly

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It’s Time to Bust the Myth of Fed Omnipotence

December 16, 2023

One of the biggest and most pervasive myths in modern-day economics is the myth of the omnipotence of the Federal Reserve.
Original Article: It’s Time to Bust the Myth of Fed Omnipotence

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How To Prevent the Boom-Bust Business Cycle

October 10, 2023

I recently wrote about how the Federal Reserve has made the economy of the United States much worse than it would have been without their bureaucratic central planning over the past century.
While the Fed’s disastrous track record is widely acknowledged even by Fed apologists, they point out that life was not perfect before the Fed either. They correctly note that there were business cycles before the creation of the Fed. So, even though inflation has been much higher with the Fed and the Fed helped cause the Great Depression and Great Recession, the US would still have had economic crises without the Fed.
That is true. However, the Fed has distorted the economy so significantly over the past century that business cycles and inflation are much worse than they were

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Will a New BRICS Currency Change Anything? Maybe

May 20, 2023

As the US government debases the dollar, other nations take notice and possibilities increase that another currency based on sound principles might emerge.

Original Article: "Will a New BRICS Currency Change Anything? Maybe"

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Will a New BRICS Currency Change Anything? Maybe

May 4, 2023

Money first originated through the voluntary exchange of commodities, such as gold and silver, in order to eliminate the inefficiencies of barter.
As Austrian school of economics founder Carl Menger explained:
Money is not an invention of the state. It is not the product of a legislative act. Even the sanction of political authority is not necessary for its existence. Certain commodities came to be money quite naturally, as the result of economic relationships that were independent of the power of the state.
However, governments quickly learned that they could gain enormous wealth and power by taking control of money. Ludwig von Mises detailed in his magnum opus Human Action how this control has harmed human progress and noted that “For two hundred years the

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The Coming Recession Will Be a Global One

March 9, 2023

While the Biden White House claims we are on a steady course of prosperity, the more realistic future is that of a global recession.

Original Article: "The Coming Recession Will Be a Global One"
This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. 

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The Coming Recession Will Be a Global One

March 2, 2023

Over one hundred years ago, Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises discovered what causes the boom-bust business cycle.
As Mises explained, the boom is caused by central and commercial banks creating money out of thin air. This lowers interest rates, which encourages businesses to borrow this newly created money to fund capital-intensive investment projects.
The bust is caused when the money creation process slows. It is then that businesses discover there are not enough scarce resources to complete their projects, so these projects must be liquidated to allow for labor and other resources to be allocated to where they are most desired by consumers.
As a result, not only does the boom-bust business cycle cause tremendous short-term hardship, but it also lowers

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Powell’s Pivot to “Pain” but No Gain: Triggering the Coming Recession

September 17, 2022

Jay “The Inflation We Caused Is Transitory” Powell finally did it.
On Friday, the Fed chair finally mustered the courage to say that he is going to do the job he has been hired to do: the Fed will not “pivot” to cut interest rates until inflation slows meaningfully and persistently—even if the stock, bond, and housing bear markets become much worse and the economy goes into recession.
Powell’s Speech Translated
Below we provide key quotes from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, along with our honest translations:
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the

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Here We Go Again: The Fed Is Causing Another Recession

July 7, 2022

Cause of the Boom-Bust Business Cycle
The primary cause of the recurring “boom and bust” business cycle is central banks like the Federal Reserve creating money out of thin air. This was first explained by Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises over a century ago. His student F.A. Hayek won the 1974 Nobel Prize in economics for his work on this theory, which is now known as Austrian business cycle theory.
The basic outline of Austrian business cycle theory is as follows:
the government “central bank” (in the US, it is the Federal Reserve or “Fed”) creates money out of thin air (they effectively “print it,” although typically in the form of digital entries now), usually by buying Treasury bills or bonds from commercial banks, which then …
is deposited in commercial

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