Tag Archives: ZIRP

The year 2024 is poised to be a critical period for the global economy and it already appears to be fraught with economic and geopolitical challenges, casting a dark shadow over the global landscape. Signs of a looming economic downturn are becoming increasingly evident and the many challenges we faced over the past year will certainly remain with us for many months to come. Economic and monetary landscape  Central bankers in most advanced economies have already all but...

The year 2024 is poised to be a critical period for the global economy and it already appears to be fraught with economic and geopolitical challenges, casting a dark shadow over the global landscape. Signs of a looming economic downturn are becoming increasingly evident and the many challenges we faced over the past year will certainly remain with us for many months to come. Economic and monetary landscape  Central bankers in most advanced economies...

There is clearly a common denominator in the kind of “solutions” that the State comes up with to deal with the problems that it caused (and that’s most problems). Not only are these remedies worse than the disease, but they are always extremely simplistic, reductionist and they never, ever, take into account anything else apart from the political “optics” and the populistic value of each new measure or piece of legislation. There is no consideration about the impact down the line,...

There is clearly a common denominator in the kind of “solutions” that the State comes up with to deal with the problems that it caused (and that’s most problems). Not only are these remedies worse than the disease, but they are always extremely simplistic, reductionist and they never, ever, take into account anything else apart from the political “optics” and the populistic value of each new measure or piece of legislation. There is no consideration about...

Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same benefit of the doubt. Most people don’t like looking to Japan mainly because it is too depressing; unless one is an Economist who...

Between November 1998 and February 1999, Japan’s government bond (JGB) market was utterly decimated. You want to find an historical example of a real bond rout (no caps nor exclamations necessary), take a look at what happened during those three exhilarating (if you were a government official) months. The JGB 10-year yield had dropped to a low of just 77.2 bps during the depths of 1998’s Asian Financial Crisis (or “flu”, so noted for its regional contagious dollar...

Back in the middle of 2018, this kind of thing was at least straight forward and intuitive. If there was any confusion, it wasn’t related to the mechanics, rather most people just couldn’t handle the possibility this was real. Jay Powell said inflation, rate hikes, and accelerating growth. Absolutely hawkish across-the-board. And yet, all the way back in the middle of June 2018 the eurodollar curve started to say, hold on a minute. That’s the part which caused so...

“The essence of the interventionist policy is to take from one group to give to another. It is confiscation and distribution. “ – Ludwig von Mises, Human Action In less than a year, we have witnessed an unprecedented monetary policy rollercoaster by the Federal Reserve, which began with a momentous U-turn in the central bank’s guidance in January, and has continued to escalate ever since. It is easy to forget that less than a year ago, all official statements and...

“The essence of the interventionist policy is to take from one group to give to another. It is confiscation and distribution. “ – Ludwig von Mises, Human Action In less than a year, we have witnessed an unprecedented monetary policy rollercoaster by the Federal Reserve, which began with a momentous U-turn in the central bank’s guidance in January, and has continued to escalate ever since. It is easy to forget that less than a year ago, all official statements and market expectations...

“The essence of the interventionist policy is to take from one group to give to another. It is confiscation and distribution. “ – Ludwig von Mises, Human Action In less than a year, we have witnessed an unprecedented monetary policy rollercoaster by the Federal Reserve, which began with a momentous U-turn in the central bank’s guidance in January, and has continued to escalate ever since. It is easy to forget that less than a year ago, all official statements and market expectations...