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Tag Archives: WTO

FX Daily, December 10: Capital Markets: Still Seems to be the Calm before the Storm

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.0921 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities are trading lower, and bonds are mixed as the FOMC, UK election, and the US decision on the December 15 tariffs draw near. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index three-day rally ended today as only China and South Korea’s markets rose. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped slightly...

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China widerlegt Montesquieu

Die Einbindung Chinas in den Welthandel hat die Demokratie im Land kaum gefördert. Das zeigt, dass Handel Gesellschaften nicht besänftigt. Türken und Uiguren protestieren in Istanbul gegen die Internierung von mehr als einer Million Uiguren in der chinesischen Provinz Xinjiang. Foto: Keystone Handel schafft offenere Gesellschaften, Demokratie und wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt: Solche Argumente gibt es bereits seit Jahrhunderten. Schon der Aufklärungsphilosoph...

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FX Weekly Preview: Synchonized Emergence from Soft Patch?

There have been plenty of developments warning of a global economic slowdown. Yet, seemingly to justify the continued advance in equity prices, there has begun to be talk of possible cyclical and global rebound. That is the new constellation, connecting the better than expected Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese September industrial output figures,  a slightly stronger than expected Q3  GDP reports from the US and the eurozone.  Ahead of the weekend, China reported...

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The Big Picture Doesn’t Include ‘Trade Wars’

The WTO today downgraded its estimates for global trade growth. In April, the international organization had figured the total volume of world merchandise trade would expand by about 2.6% in all of 2019 once the year closed out on the anticipated second half rebound. Everyone took their lumps in H1 and the WTO like central bankers everywhere were thinking “transitory” factors. Last September, the same outfit was still forecasting trade growth would nearly reach 4% in...

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FX Daily, July 2: Post-G20 Euphoria Fades, Stuck with Same Reality

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% at 1.1162 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The euphoria that greeted the resumption of US-China and US-North Korea talks has subsided. Global equities have turned mixed after yesterday’s surge. Hong Kong played catch-up, and despite ongoing demonstrations, the Hang Seng rallied over...

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The Direction Is (Globally) Clear

It is definitely one period that they got wrong. Still, IHS Markit’s Composite PMI for the US economy has been one of the better forward-looking indicators around. Tying to real GDP, this blend of manufacturing and services sentiment has predicted the general economic trend in the United States pretty closely. The latter half of 2015 was the big exception. For November 2015, the composite index jumped to 56.1 from 55.0...

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Some Initial Consequences of Trade Tensions

The Trump Administration argues that other countries have been taking unfair advantage of the US on trade for years, and what many are calling a trade war is really only the US finally saying enough. The US has taken many several countries, including China, to the WTO for trade violations and wins the vast majority of cases it has brought. It has become fashionable to talk about reciprocity and intuitively has much...

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FX Daily, December 18: Trade Tensions with China Set to Escalate

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.165 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Trends The two main legislative initiatives in the US this year, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and the tax changes, are not particularly popular. However, the next items on the agenda appear to enjoy broader support. The infrastructure...

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Rising Trade Tensions

Summary: Obama Administration has taken a hardline against China’s trade practices. Other countries are also resisting China’s arguments that it is a market economy. Last week, US imposed anti-dumping duties on imported washing machines from China. As was the campaign and the initial appointments, the election of an unorthodox candidate promises to change the way things are done in Washington. However, just as...

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Protektionismus durch die Hintertür? Nicht-tarifäre Handelshemmnisse der USA während der Finanzkrise

Gab es während der Finanzkrise eine Zunahme von Protektionismus in den USA? Auf den ersten Blick nicht, zumindest wenn man die bei der WTO meldungspflichtigen Handelsmaßnahmen in Betracht zieht. Doch eine strengere Durchsetzung von existierenden Produktstandards ist nicht meldungspflichtig. Auf dieses Instrument scheinen die USA verstärkt gesetzt zu haben – mit negativen Folgen für die Importe, wie dieser Beitrag zeigt. Die Angst vor Protektionismus führte während der Finanzkrise 2008/2009...

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