It’s not just the trade data from individual countries. Take the WTO’s estimates which are derived from exports and imports going into or out of nearly all of them. These figures show that for all that recovery glory being printed up out of Uncle Sam’s checkbook, the American West Coast might be the only place where we can find anything resembling Warren Buffett’s red-hot claim. That’s a problem, and much bigger one that may otherwise appear especially given current...
Read More »FX Daily, February 23: Dramatic Market Adjustment Continues
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.38% to 1.0931 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Rising rates continue to spur a rotation and retreat in stocks. Yesterday the NASDAQ sold-off by nearly 2.5% while the Dow Industrials eked out a minor gain. Equities are mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region while Japanese markets were on holiday. Hong Kong led the advancers, but...
Read More »FX Daily, February 16: Greenback Remains Heavy
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0799 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The equity rally appears undeterred by the rise in interest rates or the surge in oil prices. Led by Tokyo and Hong Kong, Asia Pacific equities advanced. China, Taiwan, and Vietnam markets remain closed. After gapping higher yesterday and extended the gains in early turnover today,...
Read More »FX Daily, October 14: UK Blinks on Threat to Walk Away on Eve of EU Summit
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.0729 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Turn around Tuesday saw the dollar bounce, particularly against the Australian dollar and European currencies, among the majors. Sterling pared earlier losses on reports that the UK would not walk away from the talks just yet, while the euro remains on its back foot. Emerging market...
Read More »FX Daily, September 30: Nervous Calm
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.0798 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Quarter and month-end considerations could be overwhelming other factors today. Turnaround Tuesday saw early gains in US equities fade. Asia Pacific shares were mixed, with the Nikkei (-1.5%) and Australia (-2.3%) bear the brunt of the selling, while China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and...
Read More »FX Daily, September 16: Dollar Eases Ahead of the FOMC
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.0751 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dollar has been sold against nearly all the world’s currencies ahead of what is expected to be a dovish Federal Reserve, even if no fresh action is taken. The Scandis and Antipodean currencies are leading the majors. The South African rand and Mexican peso are leading the...
Read More »The Real Diseased Body
Another day, another new Federal Reserve “bailout.” As these things go by, quickly, the details become less important. What is the central bank doing today? Does it really matter? For me, twice was enough. All the way back in 2010 I had expected other people to react as I did to QE2. If you have to do it twice, it doesn’t work. And if Ben Bernanke grew so concerned he felt a second dose was required… Put another way, if a central bank keeps doing “bigger” things,...
Read More »Ein folgenschwerer Abgang beim Währungsfonds
Der Rücktritt von David Lipton beim IWF bringt die wichtigste Organisation der Globalisierung unter stärkere Kontrolle von Donald Trump. Das neue IWF-Spitzenduo ist bereits Geschichte: David Lipton ist als Vize der neuen Direktorin Kristalina Georgieva zurückgetreten. Foto: Andrew Harrer (Bloomberg, Getty) Der Abgang von Vizedirektor David Lipton beim Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) hat nicht für die grossen Schlagzeilen gesorgt. Dennoch hat die Personalie...
Read More »FX Daily, December 19: Whiff of Inflation in the Air
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.01% to 1.0893 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It is risky to read too much into the price action in holiday-thin markets, but inflation fears are beginning to surface. The price of January WTI is around $61, having tested $50 a barrel in Q3. The CRB Index made new highs for the year yesterday and is up almost 9% for the year....
Read More »Das ist noch kein Handelsfrieden
Im Handelsstreit kam es letzte Woche zu einem Deal und die WTO büsste ihren wichtigsten Zweck ein. Wie hängen diese Ereignisse zusammen? Alles super? Trumps Deal mit den Chinesen lässt Fragen offen. Foto: Keystone Zwei Ereignisse der letzten Woche haben für den Welthandel eine grosse Bedeutung, auch für die Schweiz als kleine offene Volkswirtschaft. Am Mittwoch hat die Welthandelsorganisation WTO ihre wichtigste Funktion eingebüsst. Am Freitag kam es zwischen China...
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