Tag Archives: Swiss economy

Switzerland’s economy failed to expand in the second quarter of 2023, recording zero growth, according to data from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). In addition, economists are now lowering their growth forecasts for the year, reported SRF. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.comThe economic slowdown is being driven by a number of economic headwinds. Slowing economies in Germany and Italy and the absence of an expected post-Covid rebound in China are impacting Swiss exports. In...

Switzerland’s growth unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, pushing down our GDP growth forecast. Recent softening in the euro area also casts doubts about the pace of monetary tightening by the SNB.The strong growth enjoyed by the Swiss economy since Q1 2017 came suddenly to an end in Q3 18, when real GDP shrank unexpectedly by 0.2% q-o-q (-0.9% q-o-q annualised). This is much lower than consensus expectations of +0.4% and is down from an average of +0.8% in H1 2018.Details show that...

Switzerland’s growth unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, pushing down our GDP growth forecast for 2018. Recent softening in the euro area also casts doubts about the pace of monetary tightening by the SNB. The strong growth enjoyed by the Swiss economy since Q1 2017 came suddenly to an end in Q3 18, when real GDP shrank unexpectedly by 0.2% q-o-q (-0.9% q-o-q annualised). This is much lower than consensus...

Recent foreign exchange movements pave the way for a cautious SNB monetary policy.In April, the EUR/CHF rate (1 euro in Swiss franc) hit its highest level since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to lift its exchange rate floor in January 2015. Since then, the Swiss franc has appreciated by 5.8% against the euro, mainly driven by political uncertainty in Italy and concerns that Turkey’s economic troubles could impact European banks.Movements in the foreign exchange (FX) markets are...

…but it could start tightening at the end of this yearAt its latest  quarterly monetary policy assessment unveiled today, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its accommodative monetary policy. The target range for the 3-month Libor was kept between -1.25% and -0.25%, the interest rate on sight deposits with the SNB was maintained at a record low of -0.75%, and the central bank reiterated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed.Importantly, the central...

…but it could start tightening at the end of this year. At its latest quarterly monetary policy assessment unveiled today, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its accommodative monetary policy. The target range for the 3-month Libor was kept between -1.25% and -0.25%, the interest rate on sight deposits with the SNB was maintained at a record low of -0.75%, and the central bank reiterated its willingness to...

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Winter 2017/2018* The Federal Government’s Expert Group expects the Swiss economy to make a speedy recovery over the next few quarters. While only moderate GDP growth of 1.0% is anticipated in 2017 due to a weak first half of the year, the forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is strong at 2.3% in the course of the global economic upturn. A solid 1.9% growth is...

Swiss growth was disappointing at the end of 2016 and in the first half of 2017. Consequently, GDP growth this year is likely to be just 1.0%, its lowest level since 2012. However, a wide set of statistics are already painting a considerably more positive picture of strengthening growth as we approach the end of 2017. Of particular note is the increasing contribution of manufacturing to real GDP growth. Switzerland’s...

Leading indicators are running at multi-year highs, suggesting that underlying momentum is strengthening and becoming more broadly based. Owing to weak GDP momentum in late 2016 and the first half of the year, the Swiss economy is likely to see relatively weak growth in 2017. Part of the weakness in GDP figures was due to specific factors. However, leading indicators, notably consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI and the KoF economic indicator are...

After posting its fastest growth rate in almost three years in the third quarter, the Swiss economy is set to accelerate in 2018.According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), Swiss real GDP expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q3 2017, in line with consensus expectations and our own forecasts. This comes after several quarters of poor performance. As we mentioned in our previous Flash Note, the downturn in previous GDP figures was exacerbated by special...