Tag Archives: newsletter

This week will almost certainly end up as a clash of competing interest rate policy views. Everyone knows about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming, the beginning of what is intended to be a determined inflation-fighting campaign for a US economy that American policymakers worry has been overheated. The FOMC will vote to raise the federal funds range (and IOER plus RRP) for the first time since December 2018 Over in China, however, it’s nearly certain to be the opposite....

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing “Markets In Turmoil” every time the market dips, it’s no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen financial crisis lows. Of course, as shown, extremely negative investor sentiment tends to be the hallmark of the bottom of corrections and bear markets. Nonetheless, now that we are connected constantly to financial media, we are inundated with headlines designed to get...

I don’t know the answer to the question posed in the title. No one does because the future is not predictable. I don’t know what will happen in Ukraine. I don’t know how much what has already happened there – and what might – matters to the US and global economy. I don’t know if the Fed is making a mistake by (likely) hiking interest rates by an entire 1/4 of 1% this week. I can only see things as they are today and think about similar times in the past and know that...

“No natural gas, no war” protestors in the capital Bern on Saturday ©keystone/peter Schneider Renouncing Russian oil and gas would have serious consequences for the Swiss economy, an expert from the KOF Swiss Economic Institute has told a Sunday newspaper. If imports were to be cut off, for example in the wake of tougher sanctions against Russia, Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by 3-4 percentage points, spread over two years, according to calculations...

Die Zeit der Memecoins schien vorerst vorbei zu sein, sowohl Dogecoin als auch SHIB (Shiba Inu) konnten ihren Höhenflug 2021 nicht mit ins neue Jahr nehmen. Doch in einer allgemeinen Bärenphase beobachteten Analysten aktuell eine Whale-Bewegung, die einen neuen Kursanstieg andeutet. Crypto News: Whales investieren in Shiba Inu CryptocoinFür SHIB ging es seit Dezember 2021 um etwa 50 Prozent runter – ein massiver Absturz, gerade wenn man bedenkt, dass der Memecoin im...

Eventually the “flock of timid and industrious animals” changes their minds about how much exploitation by the few is acceptable. You may have noticed the news flow beyond the hot war in Ukraine is largely focused on capital: financial capital (markets, liquidity, interest rates, commodities, central bank tightening, etc.) and political capital (geopolitical maneuvering, sanctions, revising energy and defense policies, etc.) Notice who’s left out, unnoticed and...

Auch gegenüber dem Franken hat der Euro am Montag über die erste Tageshälft angezogen. Derzeit kostet er 1,0244, am Morgen waren es noch 1,0213 und am Freitagabend 1,0200. Der US-Dollar zeigt sich bei 0,9348 Fr. relativ stabil. In Marktkreisen gilt es als ziemlich sicher, dass die SNB zur Stützung des Euro auf Höhe der Parität zum Franken eingegriffen hat. Darauf deuten auch die am Montag publizierten Sichtguthaben der SNB, welche innerhalb einer Woche so stark...

Suppose that John, in an act of pure political gamesmanship, threatens to corner Peter. In response, Peter says to John, “If you corner me as part of your political game, I will shoot and kill Mary. So don’t corner me.” John has no doubt whatsoever that Peter is telling him the truth and that he’s not bluffing. John knows as an absolute certainty that if he corners Peter as part of his political game, Peter will shoot and kill Mary. Nonetheless, knowing full well...

As Alan Greenspan’s rate hikes closed in, longer-term Treasury yields were forced upward as the flattening yield curve left no more room for their blatant defiance. By mid-2005, though, the market wasn’t ready to fully price the downside risks which had already led to that worrisome curve shape (very flat). While all sorts of bad potential could be reasonably surmised, none of it seemed imminent or definite. Thus, between July 2005 and June 2006, the entire curve...

14.03.2022 – In Switzerland, 42 606 businesses were started from scratch in 2019. This figure, the highest ever recorded, represents growth of 8.0% compared with the previous year. In the same year, the number of high growth enterprises also reached a record, with 4803 units (+8.1% compared with 2018). One high growth enterprise in twenty was less than five years old. Such businesses are referred to as gazelle companies. These are the some of the results from the...