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See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Driven by Credit The jobs report was disappointing. The prices of gold, and even more so silver, took off. In three hours, they gained $18 and 39 cents. Before we try to read into the connection, it is worth pausing to consider how another market responded. We don’t often discuss the stock market (and we have not been...

Summary: Spain’s Banco Popular is scrambling ahead of its meeting with the ECB tomorrow; shares are around 50% in three sessions. Italy has two banks that may see the same deal Monte Paschi negotiated with the EU. Portugal banks are still putting loan loss reserves and provisions aside. Eurozone The eurozone appears to be in rare form. The political threat that seemed so palpable at the start of the year has...

– Deposit bail in risk as stocks and bonds of Spanish bank –  Banco Popular – crash – Banco Popular stock crashes most on record – down 63% this year to 34 euro cents – Spanish bank tells employees – “Don’t panic” – Risk of Spanish banking crisis as Banco Popular credit curve inverts – Banco Popular needs to find at least €4 billion more capital – analysts – Deposits over €100,000 (euro) vulnerable to bail-in – EU,...

Yet conventional economists are virtually unanimous that deflation is the danger and inflation is a “good thing” we need to spur so servicing existing debt becomes easier for debtors. Due to the deflationary pressures of technology and stagnant wages for the bottom 90%, the consensus sees low inflation as far as the eye can see. When the consensus is near-100% on one side of the boat, we can safely bet Reality will not...

The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the options skew (three-month 25 delta risk reversal) in the white line, and sterling is the yellow line.   The takeaway is that the market appears to be more nervous than the relatively firm sterling in the spot market suggests.   Typically, one might expect those with sterling exposure to sell calls (and receive funds) rather than buy puts (new expenditure).  The buyers...

Swiss Franc The euro is lower at 1.0854 (-0.06%). EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is beginning what promises to be an important week on a steady to firmer note against most of the major currencies. It is a holiday in parts of Europe (e.g.,m Germany and Switzerland). Although excitement is not until Thursday’s ECB meeting, UK election, and...

In the United States, a crazed racist is currently facing murder charges for stabbing multiple men who attempted to stop him from harassing two teenage girls. In a court appearance, he justified his murder of two Americans, one a military veteran, by citing “free speech.” On the other end of the spectrum, in Switzerland, a man was just convicted of liking Facebook comments that implied the plaintiff was racist,...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

On the FT’s Alphaville blog, Matthew Klein reviews Swiss monetary policy over the last years and its effect on the real economy. He concludes that it seems the SNB’s relentless accumulation of foreign assets has been pointless — at best. More likely, the behaviour qualifies as predatory mercantilism at the expense of the rest of the world, especially Switzerland’s hard-hit neighbours. SNB Holdings, 2001 - 2017(see...

Stock Markets EM FX closed last week on a firm note as weak US jobs data supported the notion that the Fed will find it hard to tighten in H2.  No major US data will be reported this week and the FOMC embargo for the June 14will be in effect.  As such, there is little on the near-term horizon that might help the dollar, so it’s likely to remain on the defensive this week. As always, political risk in EM remains...