Tag Archives: JPY

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Currency manipulation is becoming a hot topic now that Donald Trump has been inaugurated as the US President. Followers of his social media accounts will be aware of his criticism’s of a number of countries for artificially weakening their currency’s in order to remain competitive on a global scale, and recently...

Summary: Dollar movement helps some economic interest and hurts others. From a strategic point of view, the best thing for the US is the market-generated rate. It was an important achievement that the forex market was de-weaponized. Many observers have been crying wolf about a currency war for many years, which may have de-sensitized investors to the threat of a real one. Reports suggest that recently President...

Will EUR/CHF fall to 1.00 The reader might have seen the latest Swiss Consumer Sentiment and the UBS consumption indicator. They suggest that the Swiss boom phase should finally come. I anticipated the boom already in my slides for the CFA Society. The Swiss boom was postponed when the SNB decided to remove the euro peg in early 2015. What is the definition of a “boom”? It is economic activity mostly driven by...

Real interest rates are nominal rates adjusted for inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are tricky to measure. The Federal Reserve identifies two broad metrics. There are surveys, like the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey, and the Fed conducts a regular survey of professional forecasters. There are also market-based measures, like the breakevens, which compare the conventional yield to the...

Summary: The Fed is more confident this year of stable growth and rising inflation. The new US Administration’s economic agenda is beginning to take shape, though it is not clear that consumer interests will be pursued. There are several considerations, including politics in Europe, that are driving European rates higher. The RBA and RBNZ meet next week. Neither is expected to change policy. United States The...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Ahead of the weekend, there are two series of economic reports. The first are Europe’s service PMI reports and the second is the US employment report.  Neither report is likely to alter views significantly, but the latter has greater potential to move the market. It is important too to recognize the...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP / CHF Sterling vs the Swiss Franc exchange rate remains tentative this morning with the release of the Brexit strategy due to come out later today. A white paper is going to be published later with MPs backing the European Bill by 498 vote against 114 last night. The bill will be debated further in parliament...

Swiss Franc Switzerland SVME Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), January 2017(see more posts on Switzerland SVME PMI, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP / CHF The pound still remains on the back foot against the Swiss Franc with rates for GBP CHF sitting just below 1.25 for this pair. The pound is struggling to gain momentum against all of the major currencies as Brexit is just around the corner. The...

Summary: US official comments on the FX market appear to have increased in frequency. They are mostly warnings about a strong dollar, but not all comments are dollar-negative. Policy is the ultimate driver but comments pose headline risk. Although in office less than a fortnight,  the new US Administration is showing a disregard not only for the domestic convention but international agreements like on...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The immigration imbroglio in the United States is being cited in various accounts for the price action, including yesterday’s drop in the S&P 500, where the intraday loss was the largest since before the election.  The drama is also being blamed for the dollar’s losses yesterday, which it is...