Swiss Franc The EUR/CHF collapsed once again to 1.0650. This rate broke the 1.0680 – 1.0700 that constituted the previous intervention area. Reasons can be found in the weak U.S. GDP weak, in Trump’s foreign trade policy and in the strong Swiss trade balance. Who has understand the principles of the balance of payments, knows that private investors and the SNB must export the equivalent of the current account...
Read More »FX Daily, January 27: Week Ending on Mixed Note as Year of Rooster Begins
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc , January 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF Sterling Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Update Sterling vs the Swiss Franc has been going in an upwards direction this week after the Brexit verdict released on Tuesday morning. Initially this caused the Pound to fall vs the Swiss Franc but since then Sterling has continued to go upwards. Later today UK Prime...
Read More »US GDP Misses, but Final Domestic Sales Accelerate
Summary: Net exports was a large drag on growth. Inventories flattered growth. Underlying signal, final domestic demand, increased 2.5% after 2.1% in Q3. The first estimate of Q4 16 US GDP undershot expectations at 1.9%.Most had looked for annualized pace of a little more than 2% after the 3.5% pace in Q3. The Q3 pace was always suspect given the unsustainable surge in agriculture (soy) exports. Net exports...
Read More »Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar?
Summary: Many are concerned that the dollar and interest rates have become decoupled. We are not convinced. Correlations, not to be eyeballed, are still robust. The US 10-year yield is at its highs for the year, and yet the US dollar has been struggling to gain traction.Some suggest that this means that the dollar rally is over. Charts like this one are circulating among market participants. This Great...
Read More »FX Daily, January 26: EUR/CHF collapses to 1.670
Swiss Franc The euro collapsed today, both against USD and CHF. One reason might be the new record for Swiss exports and for the Swiss trade balance. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Sterling gains almost 2% against the Swiss Franc in 3 days, will the Pound continue to climb from here? The Pound has continued to climb throughout the week, after it was...
Read More »FX Daily, January 25: Dollar is on the Defensive Despite Firmer Rates
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound is higher against the Swiss Franc as we finally get some clarity over just what Brexit means. The pound was initially expected to fall but contrary to popular expectation it found favour as Theresa May finally delivered some clarity over just what Brexit means. Most...
Read More »FX Daily, January 24: UK Supreme Court Requires May to Submit Bill on Brexit to Parliament
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The Supreme Court ruling is finally upon us this morning which will determine whether or not UK Prime Minister Theresa May can invoke Article 50 to commence exit negotiations without as Act of Parliament. With so many political forces at work and a movement to keep Britain with as close ties as possible to...
Read More »FX Daily, January 23: Dollar’s Pre-Weekend Retreat Extended in Asia Before Stabilizing in Europe
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar had a poor close in the North American session before the weekend as investors appear increasing anxious about the new US Administration’s economic policies and priorities.With no fresh details emerging over the weekend, some stale dollar longs exited. The dollar stabilized in the European...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: The Challenging Week Ahead
Summary: Investors will finally be able to focus on what the new US President does rather than what he says. The UK Supreme Court decision is expected, but it may not be the driver than it may have previously seemed likely. The dollar-yen rate does not appear to be driven by domestic variable as much as US yields and equities. Prices not real sector data may be the key for the euro. United States The US...
Read More »FX Daily, January 20: Trump Day
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The Pound has recovered some its losses from early last week following the speech made by Prime Minister Theresa May which covered the Brexit issue. We could see further volatility going into next week though when the Supreme Court judgement is due to be released. Theresa May has already announced that she will...
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