Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.0837 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 7(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After the National Guard were called to put down an insurrection in Washington, DC, the dollar is having its best day in around a week. The euro’s three-day rally has been halted even though German factory orders surprised on the upside. The greenback is firmer against all the major...
Read More »Seizing The Dirt Shirt Title
In mid-December 2019, before the world had heard of COVID, China’s Central Economic Work Conference had released a rather startling statement for the world to consume. In the West, everything was said to be on the up. Central banks had responded, forcefully, many claimed, more than enough to deal with that year’s “unexpected” globally synchronized downturn. This view had been punctuated by Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, among many others, who in early January...
Read More »Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC
With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible – or if this is still just one three-yearlong squeeze of a global dollar shortage. Either way, Europe gets at it first. In 2018, what had been...
Read More »FX Daily, June 4: Risk Taking Pauses Ahead of the ECB
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.02% to 1.0798 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 4(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: After several days of aggressive risk-taking, investors are pausing ahead of the ECB meeting. Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though China was mixed, and Indian shares slipped. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day advance, and US shares are trading...
Read More »FX Daily, May 15: Much Talk but Little Action
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.0522 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 staged an impressive recovery yesterday, a sell-off that took it to its lowest level since April 21, to close more than 1% higher on the day, helped set the tone in the Far East and Europe today. Gains in most Asia Pacific markets, but Hong Kong, Shanghai, and India,...
Read More »Miracles Aren’t Shovel-Ready
The monetary mouse. After years of Mario Draghi claiming everything under the sun available with the help of QE and the like, Christine Lagarde came in to the job talking a much different approach. Suddenly, chastened, Europe’s central bank needed assistance. So much for “do whatever it takes.” They did it – and it didn’t take. Lagarde’s outreach was simply an act of admitting reality. Having forecast an undercurrent of worldwide inflationary breakout (how...
Read More »FX Daily, May 6: The Euro is Knocked Back Further
Overview: The late sell-off in US stocks yesterday has not prevented gains in Asia and Europe. Most of the equity markets, including the re-opening of China, gain more than 1%. Australia was a notable exception, falling about 0.4%, and Taiwan was virtually flat. European bourses opened higher but made little headway before some profit-taking set in, while US shares are trading higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer, and the US Treasury yield is near 67 bp...
Read More »The German Constitutional Court’s May 5, 2020 Verdict
Beschlüsse der EZB zum Staatsanleihekaufprogramm kompetenzwidrig. Critical discussion on Verfassungsblog by Alexander Thiele. Critical Twitter thread by Jean-Pierre Landau.
Read More »FX Daily, April 5: German Court Adds to the Euro’s Woes
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.11% to 1.0535 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 recovered yesterday after dipping trading below the 20-day moving average for the first time in a month. The key area is the gap between the April 30 low (~2892.5) and the May 1 high (~2869). Oil reversed higher as well. June crude was off nearly 9% in the US morning and...
Read More »FX Daily, May 4: Monday Blues
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11% to 1.054 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The constructive mood among investors in April has given way to new concerns as May gets underway. Japan and China are still on holiday, but most of the other markets in Asia fell, led by 4.5%-5.5% declines in Hong Kong and India, and more than 2% in most other local markets. Australia...
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