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Tag Archives: Germany

Global Headwinds and Disinflationary Pressures

I’m going to go back to Mexico for the third day in a row. First it was imports (meaning Mexico’s exports) then automobile manufacturing and now Industrial Production. I’ll probably come back to this tomorrow when INEGI updates that last number for November 2019. For now, through October will do just fine, especially in light of where automobile production is headed (ICYMI, off the bottom of the charts). Mexico is, as I’ve been writing this week, the presumed...

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FX Daily, January 9: Animal Spirits Roar Back

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.07% to 1.0804 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 recovered from a 10-day low to reach a new record high, which set the tone for the Asia Pacific and European markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped by the most in a month with the Nikkei’s 2% advance leading the way.  More broadly, the markets in Taiwan,...

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Lagarde Channels Past Self As To Japan Going Global

As France’s Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde objected strenuously to Ben Bernanke’s second act. Hinted at in August 2010, QE2 was finally unleashed in November to global condemnation. Where “trade wars” fill media pages today, “currency wars” did back then. The Americans were undertaking beggar-thy-neighbor policies to unfairly weaken the dollar. The neighbor everyone though most likely to be sponged off of was Europe. The day after the Fed’s second launch,...

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You Will Never Bring It Back Up If You Have No Idea Why It Falls Down And Stays Down

It wasn’t actually Keynes who coined the term “pump priming”, though he became famous largely for advocating for it. Instead, it was Herbert Hoover, of all people, who began using it to describe (or try to) his Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Hardly the do-nothing Roosevelt accused Hoover of being, as President, FDR’s predecessor was the most aggressive in American history to that point, economically speaking. Roosevelt just took it a step (or seven) further....

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FX Daily, December 09: China’s Steps-Up Import Substitution Strategy while USMCA Comes Down to the Wire

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.0949 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The important week is off to a slow start. While the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark extended its gains for a third session, European and US shares are struggling. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating its pre-weekend 1%+ rally, while US shares are trading heavier after rallying for...

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European Economy: A Time Recession

Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before. The real question, though, is whether the business cycle approach means anything in this day and age. I don’t think it does, and that’s a big part of why...

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FX Daily, December 5: Sterling Sent Higher as Market Discounts Next Week’s Election

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.26% to 1.0977 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 5(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global equity markets have resumed their climb after a wobble at the end of last week and earlier this week. A strong recovery in the S&P 500 on Tuesday signaled yesterday’s strong advance that left a bullish one-day island low in its wake. MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a...

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FX Daily, December 2: PMIs Provide Latest Fuel for Equity Markets

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% to 1.0999 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Mostly better than expected manufacturing PMI readings for December, including in China, is providing the latest incentive for equity market bulls. Led by the Nikkei, which was aided by a weaker yen major equity markets in Asia Pacific rallied and recouped most of the nearly 1% loss...

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FX Daily, November 25: Hong Kong, China, and UK Election Hopes Fan Modest Risk-Taking

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0997 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The combination of the victory of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and an apparent concession by China on intellectual property rights is helping bolster risk appetites to start the week. Equities are higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led Asia Pacific equities with a 1.5% gain,...

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FX Daily, November 14: Unexpected German Growth Fails to Buoy the Euro

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.17% to 1.0876 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Rising trade anxiety and disappointing economic reports from the Asia Pacific region helped unpin the profit-taking mood in equities, while bond yields continued to pullback. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 are in the red for the fourth time in the last five...

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