Tag Archives: FX Trends

  Swiss Franc Currency Index After a certain recovery in the last month, the Swiss Franc index lost ground again in this month. It is down one percent for this month, while the dollar index is up one percent. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, February 25(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is finishing the week on a mixed note in choppy activity in narrow ranges. It is an apt way to finish this week, which has been largely directionless as investors wait for fresh incentives, and are especially looking toward Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress next week. It is...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF This week the House of Lords have been debating the issue of the Brexit bill and assuming there are no amendments made this could see a free run towards the triggering of Article 50 due to take place during March. This helped the Pound to hit its best rate to buy Swiss Francs in 2017 creating some...

Summary: Greece debt has rallied as a repeat of the 2015 crisis seems less likely. The EC may turn its attention to Italy’s structural deficit. There are several countries, including France that is forecast to have a larger primary deficit in 2018 than 2017. With the official creditors on their way back shortly to Athens, there is a sense that a repeat of 2015 crisis can be avoided. There is a collective sigh...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound has made good gains against the Swiss Franc this morning with rates for GBP CHF now sitting at 1.2650 for this pair. The pound seems to have found support as the Brexit bill is still expected to pass through the House of Lords next week when the bill comes under additional scrutiny. There is a...

Swiss Franc Switzerland Trade Balance, Jan 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Trade Balance, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The pound to Swiss Franc rate has been in the main driven by sterling weakness which is weighing on the performance of the pound which has been in the main negative but we have lately seen the pound higher. This is mainly due to some clarity over the Brexit and just what...

Summary: Many are discussing a possible head-and-shoulders pattern in the Dollar Index. We are skeptical as other technical signals do not confirm. We recognize scope for disappointment over the border tax and the next batch of employment data, but European politics is the present driver and may not be alleviated soon. Here is the chart nearly everyone is discussing.  The Dollar Index appears to be carving...

Summary: For the first time since the financial crisis, the 5-year CDS on JGBs is dipping below the 5-year US CDS. It appears to be more a function of a decline in Japan’s CDS than a rise in the US CDS. We are reluctant to read too much into the small price changes in the mostly illiquid instruments.   This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg and depicts Japan and US 5-year credit default swap indicative...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates US markets are closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, but it hasn’t prevented its pre-weekend gains giving a bullish tone to global equities.  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ recovered from early weakness to close at new record levels before the weekend. Global equity markets are following suit today. The...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...