Tag Archives: FX Trends

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.15% to 1.1475 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates There are some chunky option strikes that could come into play today. There are 920 mln euros struck at $1.1850 that expire today. There are A$523 mln struck at $0.7950 expiring today. There are $680 mln struck at CAD1.2550 that will be...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.10% to 1.1496 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The high-flying dollar-bloc currencies may be a preliminary sign market change. The US dollar is gaining on the Canadian dollar for the fourth consecutive session.  It is probing resistance we identified in the $1.2620 area.  The US...

I had the privilege to be at Bloomberg today and discussed with Vonnie Quin and Mark Barton. A clip to the Cool Video can be found here. There were three talking points. First was the observation that while the President took credit for the record stock market, the strength of the economy, the low unemployment rate, and business confidence, there was no mention of the dollar, which poised to close lower for its seventh...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.68% to 1.472CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 02(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Trends The euro’s strength is surely partly a reflection of US dollar weakness, but it is also a reflection of the improved sentiment among investors. The initial dollar losses at the start of the year was largely a correction that is common after...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.41% to 1.14 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates After taking a step lower in the North American session yesterday, the dollar is consolidating today. The euro is holding above $1.18, and the dollar held JPY110.00. Global equities are mostly higher, while bonds are mixed. Asia-Pacific...

Swiss Franc The euro is up by 0.15% to 1.1385 CHF EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is enjoying a respite from the recent selling, but its gains have been shallow, and will likely prove brief. The upticks have been concentrated in the recently high-flying dollar-bloc currencies, and sterling. The tone appears to be...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: For the US jobs data to rally the dollar, it needs to increase the likelihood of a Fed hike in September, a high bar. The BOE will stand pat, a 6-2 vote would likely be accompanied by a hawkish inflation report. The RBA will also hold rates steady, and of course, it would prefer a weaker currency. The tide of sentiment has turned against the dollar. The enthusiasm seen in the second part of last year,...

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR The Swiss franc was the only major foreign currency that fell against the dollar last week. The 2.6% decline was the largest in two years. Stops triggered in the euro-franc cross, reports of direct investment-related franc sales for yen, and conviction that the SNB will lag behind the other central banks is thought to be behind the move. The dollar high in June was near CHF0.9785, and the...

The CRB Index gapped higher today and it follows a gap higher opening on Tuesday, which has not been filled. Today’s gains lift the commodity index to a trendline drawn off the January and February highs and catches the high from late May. It intersects today near 181.35 and the high has been a little over 181.17. This is depicted on the Great Graphic made on Bloomberg, with five and 20-day moving averages added....