Tag Archives: Featured

Bond yields have tumbled this morning, bringing the 10-year US Treasury rate within sight of its record low level. The catalyst appears to have been the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI. Falling below 50, this widely followed economic indicator continues its rapid unwinding. Back in November 2018, at just about 59 the overall index had still been close to its multi-decade high. Over the next nine months through the latest update for August 2019, it has shed almost 10 points....

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0835 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Risk appetites have been bolstered by three developments. The UK appears to have taken a tentative step away from leaving the EU without a deal. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Lam has agreed to formally withdraw the controversial extradition measure that had been suspended. The...

USD/CHF extends declines on the break of one-week-old support-line (now resistance). Sellers look for key technical levels amid bearish signals from MACD. Following its break of immediate support-line, the USD/CHF pair remains on the back foot while taking rounds to 0.9870 amid Wednesday’s Asian session. Sellers now aim for 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of August month downpour, at 0.9854, as immediate support ahead of targeting 0.9822/17 confluence including...

Copper prices behave more deliberately than perhaps prices in other commodity markets. Like gold, it is still set by a mix of economic (meaning physical) and financial (meaning collateral and financing). Unlike gold, there doesn’t seem to be any rush to get to wherever the commodity market is going. Over the last several years, it has been more long periods of sideways. That’s what makes any potential breakout noteworthy. Dr. Copper’s place in the hierarchy is...

The US economy is starting to show cracks from the ongoing trade war. While we do not want to make too much from one data point, we acknowledge that headwinds are building whilst US recession risks are rising. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 vs. 51.3 expected. This is the first sub-50 reading since August 2016 and the lowest since January 2016. The employment component fell to 47.4 from 51.7 in July, while new orders fell to 47.2 from 50.8...

A paradigm is a mental framework. It has a both a positive pressure and a negative filter. It structures one’s thoughts, orients them in a certain direction, and rules out certain ideas. Paradigms can be very useful, for example the scientific method directs one to begin with facts, explain them in a consistent way, and to ignore peyote dreams from the smoke lodge and claims of mental spoon-bending. However, a paradigm can also prevent one from discovering an...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.29% to 1.0831 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 03(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A showdown between UK Prime Minister Johnson and Parliament over Brexit pushed sterling below $1.20. The euro is extended its losses after finishing last week below $1.10. Growth concerns are seeing equities retreat. Japanese and Chinese shares managed to eke out gains, but...

100-Franc Note - Click to enlarge The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will begin releasing the new 100-franc note on 12 September 2019, bringing the issuance of the ninth banknote series to a close. The first denomination in the new series, the 50-franc note, entered circulation on 13 April 2016. This was followed by the 20, 10, 200 and 1000-franc notes, which were released at six or twelve-month intervals. The inspiration behind the new banknote series is ‘The many...

02.09.2019 – Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.5% in nominal terms in July 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 1.4% in July 2019 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared...

03.09.2019 – The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).The stability of the index compared with the previous month is the result of opposing trends that counterbalanced each other overall. Airfares as well as prices for international...