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Tag Archives: Euro

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As “Trump Trade” Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months. Safe havens including the yen and bonds climbed as did gold,...

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Die Finanzmärkte und die Zukunft des Euro

Die Anleger rechnen nicht mit ihrem Sieg: Marine Le Pen. Foto: Christian Hartmann (Reuters) Seit etwa einem halben Jahr steigen die Zinsdifferenzen innerhalb der Eurozone wieder. Selbst der Unterschied zwischen Deutschland und Frankreich nimmt zu. (Die Grafik zeigt die Zinsdifferenz zwischen den deutschen und französischen zehnjährigen Staatsobligationen.) Wie muss man diese neue Unsicherheit einschätzen? Droht ein Szenario wie im ersten Semester 2012, als viele Anleger auf den Zerfall...

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FX Weekly Review, March 20 – March 25: Dollar Bottom Near?

  Swiss Franc Currency Index In the last week, the Swiss Franc index recovered and gained about 2%. The dollar index lost 1.5%, Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 25(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket)On a three years interval, the...

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FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

  Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index recovered this week against the dollar index. The franc improved against both dollar and euro, given that the SNB was not dovish enough, Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 18(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

Economic Reports Scorecard The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week. They obviously view the recent cyclical upturn as being durable and the inflation data as pointing to the need for higher rates. Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still below their mid-December peaks so I don’t think a lot has changed. More...

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FX Weekly Review, March 06 – March 11: CHF loses against the euro

  Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc lost this week in particular against the euro, given that Mario Draghi was less dovish than expected. If the stronger euro is driven only by speculators, or also by “real money” (investments in cash, bonds, stocks) will be visible in Monday’s sight deposits release. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 11(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com...

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FX Weekly Review, February 27 – March 04: Dramatic Shift in Fed Expectations Spurs Dollar Gains, but Now What?

  Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index remained in its ranges. It is now trending downwards, while the dollar index is strengthening Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 04(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket)On a three years...

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Economic Dissonance, Too

Germany is notoriously fickle when it comes to money, speaking as much of discipline in economy or industry as central banking. If ever there is disagreement about monetary arrangements, surely the Germans are behind it. Since ECB policy only ever attains the one direction, so-called accommodation, there never seems to be harmony. But that may only be true because “accommodation” doesn’t ever achieve what it aims to....

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FX Weekly Review, February 20 – 25: Ranges in FX: Respect the Price Action

  Swiss Franc Currency Index After a certain recovery in the last month, the Swiss Franc index lost ground again in this month. It is down one percent for this month, while the dollar index is up one percent. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, February 25(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the...

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FX Weekly Review, February 13 – 18: Why still long the dollar?

  Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc index was mostly unchanged against the U.S. Dollar Index in the last week. One word about Marc Chandler’s argumentation below: Three types of investors are long the dollar: FX investors/speculators are long the dollar because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates). Cash investors, for example rich people from China and other Emerging Markets, currently...

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