Tag Archives: Energy

The “Wind and Solar Will Save Us” story is based on a long list of misunderstandings and apples to oranges comparisons. Somehow, people seem to believe that our economy of 7.5 billion people can get along with a very short list of energy supplies. This short list will not include fossil fuels. Some would exclude nuclear, as well. Without these energy types, we find ourselves with a short list of types of energy — what...

The probability of Republican Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election on November 8 seems remote at the moment—economists on Credit Suisse’s Global Markets team put it at less than 10 percent. So if it did happen, it would come as a major surprise for financial markets. The last time that kind of seemingly low-likelihood event came to pass—during last June’s Brexit vote—most investors were caught wrong-footed. So how might they best prepare for something as unexpected as President...

Does the recent stabilization in oil prices portend better times ahead for energy companies? Investors in oilfield services companies (OFS), which provide equipment and support to exploration and production companies, certainly think so, as evidenced by the fact that the stocks of several such companies up by double-digit percentages this year. Can the rally continue? Equity strategists from Credit Suisse’s Global Markets team think so.   Why? The answer lies in a single number:...

Arguably one of the easier calls for us to make after 37 years in power was that President dos Santos would find ways of affording himself another 5 years in. Like any ‘effective’ leader, Mr. Santos made sure the final deal to do just that was stitched up long before the Party Congress formally convenes in Luanda, with a lower level MPLA ‘Central Committee’ already rubber stamping his name in mid-August. That also...

On June 8, the price of Brent crude ticked above $50 a barrel for the first time since August 2015. But the new $50-plus era came to an end two days later, amid a broader selloff that affected multiple asset classes. Energy analysts with Credit Suisse’s Global Markets team point out, however, that both supply (which is shrinking) and demand (which is growing steadily) point to firming oil prices ahead. Indeed, the bank’s analysts think that after two years of oversupply, the crude oil market...

Summary: Bawerk explains how China will be the lender of last resort of many oil producers. China might let collapse a smaller producer and become much smarter at covering its political bases across producer states to protect longer term sunk costs. It took a while to play through, but our assessment that China would increasingly become the petro-state lender of last resort is starting to come good. The...

The fact OPEC just agreed to agree on nothing in Vienna isn’t particularly surprising given Doha wounds are still festering from the last attempt at ‘petro-diplomacy’. But the engagement ultimately has to been knocked up as a partial success for Saudi Arabia, where it’s managed to put itself back at the centre of cartel politics by thawing the ‘freeze discussion’ on Riyadh’s terms. Confused? Don’t be. As we flagged in OPEC Politics, Doha’s failure left a very dangerous door open for...

Hear what Jonathan Wilmot, Credit Suisse’s Head of Macro Investments, Asset Management, had to say about Donald Trump, China’s new role in the global economy, and the outlook for oil prices at the Credit Suisse 2016 Asian Investment Conference (AIC).   For more stories and videos from the AIC, please visit the conference website.   The post Jonathan Wilmot on China, Oil, and the U.S. Elections appeared first on The Financialist.

Bawerk shows that more than 3 mb/d of American oil production was helped by US$55.5bn in credit facilities, by excessive debt. This production is now at risk and the debt may not be repaid. The big OPEC players are playing against US shale oil and some smaller OPEC members that have higher costs. Another month, another flight to Hamad international airport for 17th April after initial agreement to hold ‘upstream horses’ in February 2016. While it’s no doubt great fun getting back...

Get beyond endless Latin American headlines burning column inches and you come to far broader strategic conclusion: The seven ‘ugly Latino sisters’, namely Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Colombia, Mexico and Argentina are all deep political trouble from collapsed benchmark prices. It’s merely a case of who’s in more advanced states of political decay where left leaning governments’ can’t hang on much longer vs. those trying to buy a bit of time with more ‘centrist’ positions. In...