The foreign exchange market sees an average daily turnover of something on the magnitude of $6.6 trillion a day. In a week, the turnover is sufficient to more than cover world trade for a year. It is the largest of the capital markets. Trends in the currency market can last for years. A little more than a year ago, we concluded that the dollar’s third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods was over and that a cyclical dollar decline was at hand. Yet the...
Read More »FX Daily, December 17: Dollar Thumped
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.22% to 1.0824 . FX Rates Overview: The prospects of a UK-EU deal and US stimulus continue to underwrite risk appetites and weigh on the dollar. Equity markets are moving higher. Led by Australia and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new record highs, while Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is at its best level since February. US shares are also trading higher. Bond markets are quiet, with European yields paring yesterday’s...
Read More »This Global Growth Stuff, China Still Wants A Word
Before there could be “globally synchronized growth”, it had been plain old “global growth.” The former from 2017 appended the term “synchronized” to its latter 2014 forerunner in order to jazz it up. And it needed the additional rhetorical flourish due to the simple fact that in 2015 for all the stated promise of “global growth” it ended up meaning next to nothing in reality. Oddly the same for 2017’s update heading into 2018 and 2019. If currency wars are the...
Read More »FX Daily, December 15: The Bulls are Emboldened
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.12% to 1.0775 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P fell for the fourth consecutive session yesterday, the longest losing streak of the quarter, and this seemed to encourage profit-taking in the Asia Pacific region today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped for the second consecutive session, and even confirmation of the...
Read More »FX Daily, December 14: Brexit Deal Hopes Lift Sterling
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.06% to 1.0776 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The fact that the UK and EU negotiators are still talking is seen as a constructive development and has spurred a sharp bounce in sterling. It traded below $1.3150 before the weekend and is pushing above $1.3400 in the European morning. It is part of the larger risk-on move lifting...
Read More »FX Daily, December 10: Brexit and US Stimulus are Unresolved as Attention Turns to the ECB
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.13% to 1.0756 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: US threats to break-up Facebook and the stalled stimulus talks spurred profit-taking in US shares yesterday and is dampening enthusiasm today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third time this week, and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed. US shares are trading with...
Read More »FX Daily, December 9: Hope Burns Eternal
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.05% to 1.0753 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The market is hopeful today. The Johnson-von der Leyen dinner is seen as evidence that both sides see one more opportunity, and sterling is among the strongest currencies today. Hopes of a $900 bln+ fiscal stimulus package in the US helped stir animal spirits and lift US stocks to...
Read More »FX Daily, December 2: Euro Rally Stalls while Brexit Concerns Trip Sterling
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.39% to 1.0817 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The selling pressure that drove the dollar lower yesterday has abated, and the greenback is paring yesterday’s loss, though the dollar-bloc currencies are showing some resilience. EC negotiator Barnier briefed ministers that the same three issues that have bedeviled the trade talks...
Read More »FX Daily, December 1: No Follow-Through After Month-End Adjustments
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.0837 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 1 (see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The near-record rallies seen in the major equity markets in November may have contributed to the month-end drama yesterday. There has been no follow-through activity. Stocks bounced back, and the US dollar is heavy, with few exceptions. In the Asia Pacific region, all the...
Read More »FX Daily, November 27: Dollar Offered Ahead of the Weekend
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.19% to 1.0814 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities are finishing the week on a firm tone, while the US dollar remains heavy. In the Asia Pacific, only Australia and India did not end the week on a firm note. The MSCI Asia Pacific completed its fourth consecutive weekly gain, for around a 13% gain. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx...
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