Tag Archives: 4) FX Trends

The CRB index has been trending lower since late May. It fell nearly 10% to retrace 50% of the rally come June 2017. This Great Graphic shows the 4 1/2 month trendline. It had been violated in late August but fell back under it at the end of last week. On Monday, it gapped higher, above the trendline. Today it filled the gap and rallied to new session highs. A move above 192.00 would likely confirm a bottom of some...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.17% at 1.1282 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro and sterling extended their recovery from the US hourly earnings lows seen before the weekend. However, the move stalled in the European morning, after the UK reported better than expected earnings itself. Sterling approached the 61.8%...

Here is the challenge: Representing a three-dimensional object in two-dimensions. It is impossible to do without distortions. Those distortions can reflect cultural biases as well as the function of the map, such as for navigation purposes. The Mercator Projection, which generates the map that may be most familiar, dates back to the 16th century. It projects the image on to a cylinder, where parallels of latitude are as...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.82% at 1.1289 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar’s pre-weekend gains were extended against most the major currencies, but the euro, sterling, and Australian dollar have recovered in the European morning.  Emerging markets currencies are mixed. The euro fell to almost $1.1525 in...

The euro recorded the low for the year so far on August 15 near $1.13. We had been anticipating a corrective phase for a couple days before the low was recorded. Recall that the previous Friday, August 10, all the major currencies, but the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar were beyond their Bollinger Bands. The euro recovered toward $1.1735 on August 28, stopping shy of our initial objective of $1.1750. Yet through the...

United States The 201k rise in US non-farm payrolls edged above the median forecasts, but the 50k downward revision to the past two-months removes the gloss. It is the first August report in seven years that the initial estimate was above the Bloomberg median. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Sep 2013 - Sep 2018(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ) Source: investing.com - Click to enlarge The most important part of the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.26% at 1.1185 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 7(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro’s resilience strikes us as a potentially important reflection of market psychology. Last week’s high was set near $1.1735, and the high for August was a little higher at nearly $1.1745. The euro has not been above $1.1750 since the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.21% at 1.1276 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro set a new high for the week in Asia earlier today near $1.1660. It subsequently was sold off to $1.1615 before rebounding. There is a 1.6 bln euro option struck at $1.16 that will be cut today. That it remains firm is impressive given...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.20% at 1.1305. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar is posting gains against most of the emerging market and major currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is off 1.6% and extending the drop to a sixth consecutive session. Indonesia’s bourse saw the largest decline (~3.75%) in the...

- Click to enlarge I had the privilege of being on the Bloomberg set with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua earlier today. Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of ECRI also joined us for the discussion. This 6.5 min video clip captures the essence of the discussion. The US dollar was rallying against all the major and most EM currencies. The second consecutive quarterly economic contraction in South Africa pushed the rand...