Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

27.02.2020 – In 2019, the Swiss hotel sector registered 39.6 million overnight stays. This represented growth of 1.9% (+755 000) compared with 2018 and constitutes a new record. This result confirms the upward trend started in 2017. Foreign demand totalled 21.6 million overnight stays which represents an increase of 1.1% (+246 000), i.e. a level of overnight stays never seen before. Swiss demand increased by 2.9% (+509 000), reaching the record value of 17.9 million...

25.02.2020 – In the 4th quarter 2019, the total employment (number of jobs) in Switzerland rose by 1.2% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.2% with previous quarter). Employment growth has thus been uninterrupted for a decade. In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.1%. The Swiss economy counted 3700 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+5.0%) while the employment outlook indicator fell...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

. Euro-area growth has hit a slow patch. Following promising signs of having turned a corner, economic data released last week revealed that Q4 growth in the euro area reached its slowest pace since the European debt crisis. German growth was flat for Q4, in line with expectations. As far as Germany’s outlook goes, dark clouds have taken the form of an uncertain political environment and China’s recent weakness. We expect German politics to be even more...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...

13.02.2020 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.9% between the 4th quarter 2018 and the 4th quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined from 4.6% to 3.9%. The EU’s unemployment rate based also decreased from 6.6% to 6.2%. These are some of the results of the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download press release: 4th quarter 2019: 0.9% increase in number of...

10.02.2020 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in January 2020 compared with the previous month, reach-ing 101.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for clothing and footwear due to seasonal sales. The prices for...

31.01.2020 – In 2019, 6 160 300 motor vehicles circulated on Swiss roads. This was 46 500 or 0.8% more than in the previous year. Three quarters of the entire fleet were passenger cars, including an increasing number of electric cars: of the 312 900 cars that were newly registered in 2019, 13 200 or 4.2% were purely battery operated. This meant that new registrations of electric cars increased substantially year-on-year (+143.9%) while the number of petrol-driven...

31.01.2020 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.4% in nominal terms in December 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in December 2019 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...