SNB & CHF

On January 6, we wrote the Surest Way to Overthrow Capitalism. We said: “In a future article, we will expand on why these two statements are true principles: (1) there is no way a central planner could set the right rate, even if he knew and (2) only a free market can know the right rate.” Today’s article is part I that promised article. Let’s consider how to know the right rate, first. It should not be controversial to...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.07% at 1.1411 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The Lunar New Year celebration made for a quiet Asian session while a light diary in Europe saw subdued turnover. Equity markets are narrowly mixed. Among the three large markets open in Asia Pacific, Australia and Japanese equities...

Mit „links und rechts“ hat unsere Schweizerischen Nationalbank (SNB) ihre grosse Mühe. Da ist zunächst ihre Bilanz, bei der sie unfähig ist, „links und rechts“ voneinander zu unterscheiden. Unverstanden gerät sie nun folgerichtig auch politisch immer mehr unter Druck: konsequenterweisee von „links und rechts“. Von „links und rechts“ wird nämlich endlich gefordert, dass die SNB ihre Überschüsse aus dem Negativzins den...

A Volkswagen employee maneuvers a steel coil in a factory in Emden, Germany The European Union is imposing limits on steel coming into the bloc from Saturday in response to US President Donald Trump’s metals tariffs. The measures will also affect Swiss steel exports to the EU. The EU said on Fridayexternal link that it is introducing new measures to prevent steel produced for the US market from flooding into Europe...

The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days. The important macro points are known. The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase.    Investors had been concerned about what has become known as “quantitative tightening” or “QT”.  It is the opposite of QE. Collectively the central banks’ balance...

Gold is on fire, but why is it on fire? When the precious metals’ price falls, Stage 2, we have a pretty good idea what that means (collateral). But when it goes the other way, reflation or fear of deflation? Stage 1 or Stage 3? If it is Stage 1 reflation based on something like the Fed’s turnaround, then we would expect to find US$ markets trading in exactly the same way. Like 2017, when gold was last rising, there...

The January employment report was mixed.  It is unlikely to have a material impact on expectations for Fed policy.  However, it does suggest the downside risks may not materialize. The US economy grew 304k jobs, well above expectation.  It is marred by a 70k net downward revision of the past two months, and notably a 90k cut in December’s estimate, which brings it to 222k (from 312k).  The participation rate edged...

Men have long dreamed of optimal outcomes. There has to be a better way, a person will say every generation. Freedom is far too messy and unpredictable. Everybody hates the fat tails, unless and until they realize it is outlier outcomes that actually mark progress. The idea was born in the eighties that Economics had become sufficiently advanced that the business cycle was no longer a valid assumption. The mantra,...

Dining out is less likely on a lower wage. (© KEYSTONE / GAETAN BALLY) The pay gap between men and women in Switzerland has increased slightly, amounting to hundreds of francs per month on average. Men earned 19.6% more pay than female colleagues in 2016, compared to a 19.5% difference in 2012. While some of this gap can be explained by length of service, additional qualifications and the like, in more than four out of...

Some historians give Adlai Stevenson credit for inventing the word “brinkmanship” as part of his criticism of US foreign policy under Dulles, who said that “if you are scared of going to the brink, you lost.” But surely we can agree that the tactic is as old as civilization.   The idea is you take the issue to the very edge, risking a significant confrontation, to force a deal, is the way it may seem. The Cuban Missile...